374
FXUS64 KSHV 060544
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Adjust pops/wx/add fog for tonight and remove the heat headline.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 755 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The cold front is dropping down well in the wake of all our
wonderful heat dispersing rainfall. Radar coverage remains most
active now across our southern tier of Co/Pa and will remain so
for a couple more hours while diminishing along the way with
sunset. Still some activity possible overnight so no major changes
there, just needed to sweep back across McCurtain for a couple
more hours. This is where we are seeing mid 60 dew points near
I-30 with low to mid 70s, or more with this rainfall. Air temps
are rain cooled mid to upper 70s and low 80s. We are seeing NE
winds now into E TX, as if this afternoon we had the front door
push and now it`s backdooring down. So again, this front will sag
in our I-20 corridor overnight and we may see some patchy fog in
the predawn and post dawn hours in the warm sector. Northerly
winds should keep a drying trend north of I-20 for the short run
in that regard. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Sunday morning will see a renewed round of showers and storms move
into the ArkLaTex, with precip chances continuing throughout the
course of the day. By this point, the upper level pattern will be
somewhat in flux, with the high off to our east over the Florida
peninsula, the trough responsible for the boundary forcing this
new moisture to the north over the Plains and Midwest, and of
course Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico, which looks to be returning to
hurricane strength by this time as is treks northwest towards the
Texas coastline.

The bottom line for the ArkLaTex is that we are closely monitoring
Beryl, as the latest model runs suggest it will arc to the northeast
upon its landfall, bringing impacts to the ArkLaTex early next week,
likely beginning late Monday into Tuesday depending on the extent of
the rain field. When combined with the existing moisture in the form
of convection being stirred up by our stationary boundary, this will
bring with it the possibility of flash flooding across much of the
Four State Region, especially east Texas and into north Louisiana
and southern Arkansas, with the ERO for Tuesday featuring a Slight
Risk including the aforementioned regions, and further upgrades
are not being ruled out as of this writing.

Depending on the structure, organization and coverage expanse of
Beryl as it treks northeastward, severe weather impacts to the
ArkLaTex are not out of the realm of possibility. However, there are
too many variables at this time to say much beyond that we will be
closely monitoring the development of this tropical system.

The nature of Beryl`s interactions with the upper level troughing
will be of enormous consequence for the latter days of this extended
forecast. In broad strokes, it seems reasonable at this point to
anticipate a breakdown in the TC`s organization as it gets absorbed
into the trough. This troughing looks to remain very much in
place due north as ridging over the Intermountain West and ridging
over the Atlantic coast help hold it in place, continuing to
deluge the ArkLaTex with daily chances for showers and storms
through next week. Temperatures will remain seasonable throughout
if not below average, with highs in the lower 90s possible only
climbing into the upper 80s by the middle of next week, while lows
remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

With the exception of tempo MVFR ceilings across some sites near
daybreak, mainly VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals
through the TAF period ending 07/06Z. VCTS conditions may be
possible near MLU this afternoon. Otherwise, light southeast winds
tonight to become northeast around 4 to 7 knots on Saturday behind
a weak frontal boundary that will push through the region from the
north. Light and variable winds expected after 07/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  77  93  78 /  50  10  40  20
MLU  91  74  90  75 /  50  10  50  20
DEQ  91  68  90  69 /  10   0  30  30
TXK  93  73  93  75 /  20   0  30  20
ELD  91  70  90  72 /  20   0  30  20
TYR  91  74  93  76 /  40  10  30  20
GGG  91  74  92  75 /  50  10  40  20
LFK  91  74  93  75 /  70  10  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...05