209
FXUS64 KSJT 290947
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
447 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A Heat Advisory will remain in effect for this afternoon as heat
index values will be up to 107 degrees. The high pressure sitting
across our region will weaken a bit. This means slightly cooler
temperatures for this weekend by a couple of degrees. Regardless,
hot and dry conditions will remain the concern for short term
portion of the forecast. An increase in heat related illnesses
remains a possibility for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A seemingly perpetual 500mb ridge positioned over Texas will
continue to drive the ongoing heat wave through the weekend and
through the first half of next week.  Heights look to top out around
596 dam, while 850mb temperatures look to be in the 20-22 deg C
range on Sunday, pushing to 24 deg C by Tuesday. As a result,
afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s to around
100 to start the week, then reach the 100-105 degree range for
Tuesday. Southerly surface flow should also keep humidity levels up,
with dewpoints of 65-70 expected leading to warm muggy conditions
overnight.

For the latter half of the week, models show the ridge starting to
break down as a trough drops into Oklahoma and north Texas. Hot
conditions with temperatures around 100 look to remain in place for
Wednesday and Thursday as the airmass remains quite warm.  Chances
for rain and thunderstorms increase starting Friday as a weak cold
front drops into the area.  The evolution of the upper-level pattern
will likely change quite a bit over the next few days, so timing and
chances for rain could change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

MVFR ceilings may eventually develop across KJCT and KBBD. Current
satellite imagery shows low cloud development across areas near
Kerrville. Expect this activity to spread northward through the
overnight hours. Then, clearing will occur late in the morning as
gusty winds develop across the region through the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  78  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 102  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    99  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 101  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       97  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       97  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-
Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...41