244
FXUS64 KSJT 290842
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
342 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Upper level ridging will remain firmly in control as we head into
the weekend. 850mb temperatures, however, are forecast to be a
couple degrees cooler on Saturday compared to today. This may
shave a degree or two off our afternoon highs. Regardless, it will
still be hot, with highs topping out in the upper 90s to around
103 degrees. Will go ahead and extend and current heat advisory
through Saturday evening given heat index values will once again
rise to around 105-107 degrees across much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A seemingly perpetual 500mb ridge positioned over Texas will
continue to drive the ongoing heat wave through the weekend and
through the first half of next week.  Heights look to top out around
596 dam, while 850mb temperatures look to be in the 20-22 deg C
range on Sunday, pushing to 24 deg C by Tuesday. As a result,
afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s to around
100 to start the week, then reach the 100-105 degree range for
Tuesday. Southerly surface flow should also keep humidity levels up,
with dewpoints of 65-70 expected leading to warm muggy conditions
overnight.

For the latter half of the week, models show the ridge starting to
break down as a trough drops into Oklahoma and north Texas. Hot
conditions with temperatures around 100 look to remain in place for
Wednesday and Thursday as the airmass remains quite warm.  Chances
for rain and thunderstorms increase starting Friday as a weak cold
front drops into the area.  The evolution of the upper-level pattern
will likely change quite a bit over the next few days, so timing and
chances for rain could change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

MVFR ceilings may eventually develop across KJCT and KBBD. Current
satellite imagery shows low cloud development across areas near
Kerrville. Expect this activity to spread northward through the
overnight hours. Then, clearing will occur late in the morning as
gusty winds develop across the region through the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  78  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 102  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    99  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 101  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       97  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       97  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-
Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...41