Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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105 FXUS64 KSJT 282331 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 631 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Upper level ridging will remain firmly in control as we head into the weekend. 850mb temperatures, however, are forecast to be a couple degrees cooler on Saturday compared to today. This may shave a degree or two off our afternoon highs. Regardless, it will still be hot, with highs topping out in the upper 90s to around 103 degrees. Will go ahead and extend and current heat advisory through Saturday evening given heat index values will once again rise to around 105-107 degrees across much of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 An elongated 500mb subtropical ridge across the south central and southeast United States Sat night and Sunday will continue to provide subsidence across west central Texas through the weekend into early next week. The upper level ridge of high pressure will amplify across northeast Texas and the Arklatex region Monday and shift eastward Tuesday as a 500mb shortwave trough moves into the north central U.S. Tuesday. The upper level trough of low pressure deepening across the southern plains Wednesday will allow convection to develop across the south central plains. This will allow a weakness in the 500mb subtropical ridge to develop across northwest Texas Thursday into Friday. This will provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the CWA towards the end of the forecast period. Otherwise hot and dry conditions will prevail through the weekend into next week with temperatures and/or heat index values approaching heat advisory criteria Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions will continue through tonight across all terminals, with only a slight chance for a brief window of MVFR ceilings redeveloping across KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD early Saturday morning for a few hours. Included a brief 3 hours of broken MVFR ceilings between 11Z and 14Z before all terminals return to VFR conditions for the remainder of Saturday. Winds will generally remain out of the south to southeast, becoming light overnight tonight and breezy again by later Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 78 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 78 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 77 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 77 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 78 101 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 76 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 77 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Brown-Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan- Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...TP