Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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116 FXUS64 KSJT 051025 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 525 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Cooler temperatures expected across the area today, as a weak cold front moves through. The front will provide a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop from north to south today, primarily during the afternoon hours when the best coverage can be expected due to daytime heating/instability. Although we are not expecting severe storms today, the stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty downburst winds. The airmass will be quite moist today, which will contribute to heavy downpours with the stronger storms and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall/localized flooding. Temperatures will be coolest across the Big Country today, where afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Farther south, highs will range from the low to mid 90s across the Concho Valley and Heartland, and in the upper 90s along the I-10 corridor. For tonight, will maintain low rain chances (20 to 40 percent), with isolated to widely scattered showers/storms possible. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Saturday with the stalled frontal boundary acting as a focus for convection. Temperatures will generally be below average, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. The front washes out on Sunday as low level south-southwesterly flow quickly resumes. This will result in temperatures warming back up into the upper 90s to around 102 degrees under southerly winds and mostly sunny skies. Still quite a bit uncertainty next week regarding both rainfall chances and amounts as well as temperatures. Models bring another front down into the area on Monday. The front will tap into some low level moisture, with another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms possible. Rain chances and temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday will greatly depend on what eventually happens with the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. Latest track forecast from the National Hurricane Center now brings the center of Beryl across the south Texas coast near Brownsville. Thereafter, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the eventual track as the remnants of the system move across Texas. Overnight runs of the GFS and ECMWF show the cyclone lifting northward and then northeastward across central and north Texas keeping the heaviest rainfall to our east. Thus, confidence on appreciable rainfall amounts for our area is low. Nevertheless, with abundant moisture in place will maintain a slight chance to chance of PoPs for much of the week. Temperatures next week will be highly dependent on how much rain and cloud cover we get, with the NBM on the cooler end of the guidance compared to the MOS guidance. Currently have highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday through Thursday. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals the next 24 hours. A weak cold front will sag through KABI this morning, and across the reaming terminal this afternoon. Scattered convection is expected across the terminals after 17Z but confidence in coverage and timing is rather low. Will maintain PROB30 groups for this potential this afternoon. No precipitation is expected this evening, but could see some some isolated convection develop near the KABI terminal after 06/06Z. Currently, confidence remains too low to mention at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 89 70 91 73 / 60 40 30 10 San Angelo 97 73 94 74 / 30 40 40 10 Junction 98 74 95 74 / 20 20 40 10 Brownwood 92 71 91 72 / 50 40 40 10 Sweetwater 89 70 92 73 / 50 40 30 10 Ozona 97 73 92 73 / 20 20 30 10 Brady 94 71 90 73 / 40 30 40 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...24