439
FXUS64 KSJT 301005
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
505 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Early this morning, a ragged stratus deck was developing over the
northwest Hill Country and along the I-10 corridor.  Southeast winds
were keeping temperatures in the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper
60s.

Another hot, sticky day is expected as the upper-level high is
centered over northwest Texas with 850mb temperatures of 18-22 deg
C.  Dewpoints today should only dry out to the mid 60s, thanks to
the southeast surface flow, so heat indices will once again range
from 100-105 degrees.  The existing Heat Advisory has been expanded
row or two counties westward to account for some locations that are
expected to reach 105 degrees for the Heat Index. Otherwise, another
muggy night is anticipated as temperatures should only dip into the
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The main weather concern over the next week will be the heat. The
upper level ridge will continue to sit over our area and dominate
our weather for most of the long term period. The ridge will start
to shift eastward on Tuesday, and will eventually start to weaken as
a shortwave trough moves over the northern U.S. Thursday into
Friday. Temperatures will stay above-normal, with much of the area
in the triple digits, for most of the work week. Surface winds
should generally remain from the south/southeast keeping moisture
and heat index values high. Looking at the Fourth of July
specifically, forecast highs are in the upper 90s to around 105
degrees, with heat index values around 107 in some areas. San Angelo
and Abilene are forecast to be in the extreme category for both WBGT
and Heat Risk for the fourth. So, there will be a very high risk for
heat-related impacts for those that celebrate outdoors. There is a
slight chance for precipitation in the northern Big Country late
Thursday evening and overnight. But chances look better for later
Friday and into Saturday.

A surface low is expected to develop over the northern U.S. as the
shortwave moves over that area. We could see a weak cold front,
associated with that low, move through Friday into Saturday.
Precipitation will be possible along the front as it moves south.
We`ll have a better idea on timing and amounts as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions until MVFR ceilings develop around sunrise.
Ceilings clearing out by 15Z with south to southeast winds
increasing for the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 101  75 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    98  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   98  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 100  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       97  73  96  74 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       95  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-
Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK