672
FXUS64 KSJT 041104
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
604 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The main story today will be the continued hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. An upper level ridge centered across the
Southeast U.S. will continue to result in temperatures well above
seasonal normals. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM for
much of the Concho Valley and Big Country, where highs near 105
are forecast. Elsewhere, expect highs in the upper 90s to near
103.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Central and
Northern Plains today, sending a cold front into the northern Big
Country this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
possible along the front, so have included slight chance PoPs this
evening mainly across our northern counties. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the Trans-Pecos region and
Southeast New Mexico this evening, along the western periphery of
the ridge. Most of this activity should remain to our west, but
cannot rule out a few storms sneaking into our far western counties.
Isolated to scattered showers are also possible after midnight,
mainly across the Big Country, as the aforementioned cold front
slowly moves south. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Rain chances will continue on Friday, along with cooler temperatures
as the cold front moves south through most of the area during the
day. Coolest temperatures will be across the Big Country, with
afternoon highs only in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Temperatures will be warmer farther south prior to the front
moving through, with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Our area will
remain in northwest flow aloft over the weekend, with rain
chances persisting into Saturday, as minor disturbances move
through aloft. Temperatures look to be near to slightly below
normal on Saturday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s.
Sunday is expected to be dry and a bit warmer, with highs in the
mid and upper 90s.

An unsettled pattern will persist across the region as we head
into next week, with the focus turning to the eventual track and
potential impacts from Hurricane Beryl. The latest NHC track takes
Beryl into Mexico just south of Texas by early Monday morning and
then lifts it farther north into south Texas by early Tuesday
morning. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty where the
remnants of Beryl will track, which will have a significant effect
on rainfall potential and amounts across the area as we head into
next week. Despite the uncertainty of Beryl, we will remain in
northwest flow aloft next week, with the upper ridge positioned
over the western states. This pattern will support low end rain
chances and cooler temperatures across the area through Thursday,
with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Patchy stratus may result in brief MVFR ceilings at the southern 3
sites. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to generally prevail.
South winds will increase to 10 to 12 knots, with higher gusts, by
mid morning. Expect winds to steadily decrease this afternoon and
drop below 10 knots this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    102  76  90  72 /   0  20  50  30
San Angelo 104  77  98  75 /   0  10  50  30
Junction   100  74  99  73 /   0   0  30  20
Brownwood  101  76  94  72 /   0  10  50  30
Sweetwater 103  76  90  71 /  10  20  50  20
Ozona       99  74  97  73 /   0   0  30  30
Brady       99  75  95  72 /   0   0  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Fisher-
Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...Daniels