696
FXUS64 KSJT 040723
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
223 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Latest visible imagery shows an outflow boundary south of the Red
River, which may move into Haskell and Throckmorton counties.
This area is probably the best bet for a thunderstorm or two this
afternoon evening, but can not rule out isolated storms farther
south...from Brownwood to Junction and east...where there may be
differential heating from a stratus layer from earlier this
morning.

The focus for Tuesday transitions from storms to heat, as an
upper ridge develops over the region, and a dryline develops east
of a Sonora to San Angelo to Abilene to Haskell line in the
afternoon. Highs will approach 105 in the Concho Valley, although
heat indices are lower at upper 90s to 100. Farther east, heat
indices along and east of a Brownwood to Junction line range from
105 to 108. A heat advisory may be needed in either or both of
these areas Tuesday afternoon, with areas from Brownwood to
Junction and east have the greatest risk.

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy Tuesday. The record high
at Abilene of 101 in 2013 looks to be exceeded with a forecast
high of 104. San Angelo forecast of 105 will be close, with the
record high of 107 in 1916.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A generally hot and dry, but typical, pattern is in store for the
over west central Texas for the Wednesday through Sunday timeframe.
A 590 dam height ridge at the mid-levels will begin to set up over
New Mexico and far west Texas on Wednesday and persist through at
least Friday. West central Texas will be on the east side of this
ridge and shortwaves embedded in northwest flow aloft may help to
generate thunderstorm chances for the Big Country on Wednesday and
Friday.  A weak cold front should dip as far south as the Concho
Valley on Wednesday and could hold high temperatures down into the
mid 90s.  In the same token, cold pooling from thunderstorms over
southwest Oklahoma and north Texas on Friday could also provide some
relief from the heat. However, this will fully depend on how
mesoscale features develop that day. Otherwise, high temperatures
will be in the upper 90s to around 100 through Saturday.

Looking ahead to Sunday through early next week, global models show
a closed upper low near Baja California getting absorbed into a
deepening trough over the West Coast.  This would allow the mid-
level ridge to begin to break down over the central US.  Chances for
showers and thunderstorms should increase during this time period,
especially as a stronger front comes through on Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Patchy low clouds are present to our southeast. These could make
there way into our 3 southern terminals (KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA)
over the next few hours. MVFR CIGs will be possible early this
morning for these areas. Skies should start to clear after
sunrise. Gusty winds will prevail for much of the late morning
and early afternoon, before weakening after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    104  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 107  74 102  73 /   0   0  10  10
Junction   103  76 102  73 /  10   0  10  10
Brownwood   98  73  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater 103  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona      103  73 102  73 /   0   0  10  10
Brady      100  74  96  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Irion-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Sterling-Sutton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...AP