825
FXUS64 KSJT 211734
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1234 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Our area will be under southwest flow aloft today and tonight
with an upper level ridge to our east over the lower Mississippi
Valley/Gulf Coast states, and a broad upper trough over most of
the western half of the CONUS. A dryline will mix east across at
least the northern and western parts of our area today. By late
afternoon, the dryline should extend from east of Wichita Falls to
Putnam to just west of Sonora. A few thunderstorms are possible
late this afternoon and evening along the dryline. Carrying slight
chance PoP for the area generally east of an Albany to Ballinger
to Eden line. Cap strength will be an issue and may not have any
storm development. However, with strong instability and effective
bulk shear around 50 knots, have a conditional risk for large to
very large hail and localized damaging wind gusts with any storms
that can develop. Temperatures will be hot again today, especially
behind the dryline. But some presence of high clouds should have
a slight limiting effect. Expect highs to range from the lower to
mid 90s in our eastern counties, to around 100 degrees in the
western Concho Valley (including San Angelo) and along parts of
the I-10 corridor.

The dryline will retreat west and northwest of our area
overnight, and low-level moisture transport with southerly winds
will result in warm and humid conditions overnight. Lows will be
71-74 degrees across our area. Expect low cloud development from
the south late tonight, to the I-20 corridor by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...Chance for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening...

By early Wednesday morning, a cold front will be moving into our
northern counties, with the front expected to make progress south
of Interstate 20, and possibly into the Concho Valley and
Heartland areas by mid to late afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along this boundary as it moves
south. Plentiful moisture will be available in the low levels with
dewpoint values well into the 60s to near 70 degrees for most of
the area. A dryline may push into the western Concho Valley and
Northern Edwards Plateau areas during the afternoon, which would
limit moisture, but also could provide a secondary focus for
convection. South of the front, temperatures will warm well into
the 90s to around 100 degrees, while along and north of the front,
temperatures will be cooler, and may be affected by ongoing
precipitation/cloud cover. Surface based CAPE will approach 4000
J/kg, and 0-6 km shear will generally be greater than 40 knots.
Depending on the timing, some shortwave energy could also move
through in southwest flow aloft. At any rate, if thunderstorms can
get going they will quickly increase to severe levels with the
ample instability. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and even a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly east of a
Sweetwater/San Angelo/Sonora line. Although most of the more
intense activity is expected during the afternoon and evening, if
there are storms during the morning hours they could also be
severe.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday afternoon. Once
again, severe storms may develop, mainly east of a Sweetwater to
San Saba line.

From Friday through the Memorial Day Weekend, zonal flow to weak
ridging is expected to develop aloft. This is expected to keep our
weather dry, and our temperatures very hot with highs in the 90s
to around 100 degrees, and lows from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

MVFR ceilings are clearing out, leaving VFR conditions for the
rest of today. Winds could briefly become northwest this
afternoon, before switching back to the south. Thunderstorms this
evening should stay to the east of the area. Low clouds are
expected to return for KJCT, KSOA, KBBD, and possibly KSJT
overnight and into tomorrow morning. A cold front will move south
through the area tomorrow, switching winds to the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  88  68  92 /  10  50  20  20
San Angelo  73  97  70  98 /  10  20  20  10
Junction    75  95  71  98 /  10  30  20  10
Brownwood   73  90  70  89 /  20  50  30  30
Sweetwater  69  88  67  96 /  10  50  20  10
Ozona       73  98  70  99 /  10  10  20  10
Brady       73  93  70  91 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...AP