720
FXUS64 KSJT 191722
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1222 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

No significant changes from the previous forecast for today and
tonight. We`re still expecting to be dry, breezy, and very hot,
with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs should
again range from the mid 90s to around 103 degrees. Winds will
pick up out of the south to 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts by mid
to late morning. The warm weather will continue through tonight
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate hot and dry weather will result
from a high pressure ridge that sits over our area through Tuesday.
Then, a frontal boundary will affect the area on Wednesday
afternoon, which will limit high temperatures across the Big
Country to the middle 80s. This frontal boundary will combine with
a dryline off to the west to support thunderstorm development
during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Additional
activity is possible across the region on Thursday along the
dryline as a minor disturbance aloft also moves through. All of
this activity will have to be monitored closely for severe weather
potential. Conditions appear to be favorable for possible severe
weather on Wednesday and Thursday. With regards to Tuesday, a
Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. However, it remains
to be seen if any thunderstorm development can be initiated. If it
does initiate, then these thunderstorms will certainly carry the
risk of severe weather. However, chances remain low (less than
20%) for thunderstorm development. These details will become more
clear over the next few days as to exactly what kind of threats
may emerge. Please check back over the next day or two for
updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Going with a VFR forecast the next 24 hours. Could see some
stratus try to develop tomorrow morning across the southern
terminals. Confidence remains too low at this time to include
a ceiling, so will just include a scattered group around
1.5K FT at the three southern terminals for now. Expect gusty
south winds this afternoon, diminishing this evening for most of
the terminals. KABI can expected winds to remain gusty overnight,
with gusty south winds returning to all terminals after 15Z
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  71 102  74 104 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    70  98  72 103 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   68  93  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  72 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       70 100  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       69  95  72  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...24