157
FXUS64 KSJT 251154
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
654 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...A significant severe weather event is possible across the central
and southern Plains states this afternoon and evening...

An amplified mid level trough, currently over the western states
will advance east today, with several embedded disturbances moving
across the Plains states during peak heating. A dryline will extend
south from far western portions of Oklahoma, into far western
portions of our forecast area by this afternoon. Rich boundary layer
moisture will reside east of the dryline, with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Temperatures will climb well into the
90s across the Big Country and between 100 and 102 degrees farther
south. This will result in a very unstable airmass across the area,
with SBCAPES 3500-4000 J/kg, along with deep layer shear between 45
and 55 kts. The greatest severe weather potential today will be
north of our area in Oklahoma and Kansas, where the best upper level
support (short wave disturbances) is expected.

Farther south across West Central Texas, convective initiation
should be more isolated, with the most favored area for
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the Big Country and
northern Heartland, where an enhanced risk of severe storms exists.
A large moderate risk of severe storms will exist across western/
central Oklahoma into Kansas where a tornado outbreak is possible.
Despite limited upper level support farther south, convective
inhibition will be weak by peak heating and any storms that develop
should rapidly become severe. All modes of severe weather will be
possible today, including very large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes, some of which may be strong. With that said, latest CAM`s
show only isolated supercells developing across the Big Country
after 4PM, so POPs were capped at 30 percent across eastern portions
of the Big Country, with 20 POPs extending south into the Concho
Valley and Heartland. Any storms that do develop should be east of
the area by mid evening, with dry weather expected for the rest of
the overnight period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Mid level ridging will be in place across west central Texas on
Sunday and Monday resulting in hot and dry conditions. Temperatures
will top out in the upper 90s to near 104 degrees on Sunday, with
the hottest temperatures across portions of the Concho Valley and
northern Edwards Plateau. Slightly cooler temperatures are
forecast for the Big Country on Monday as a weak backdoor front
approaches the I-20 corridor before stalling. South of this
boundary it will still be very hot, with highs topping out in the
101-106 range from San Angelo down to Junction. The pattern
becomes more unsettled as we head into the middle of the week.
The mid-upper level ridge begins to break down on Tuesday with
multiple shortwaves moving through the ridge Tuesday though
Thursday. We could also have a surface boundary draped across the
region on Wednesday. This will lead to the development of
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the middle to
end of the week. There will be some potential for severe weather
on Tuesday and Wednesday but it is still too early to really dive
into specifics. Also given the moist airmass in place periods of
locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. Otherwise, with
the increased cloud cover and rain chances we`ll get some relief
in the form of cooler highs for the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

MVFR stratus will affect the terminals this morning and scatter
out to VFR after 17Z. There is the potential for thunderstorms
to develop across the area late this afternoon, with the most
favored area around the KABI terminal. Will include VCTS at KABI
this forecast cycle between 22Z and 26/01Z. Any storms that
develop will likely be severe. Expect light winds through early
morning, then south winds will gust 20 to 25 knots after 17Z.
Winds will diminish by this evening, except at KABI where winds
are expected to remain gusty overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  72  97  65 /  20  10   0   0
San Angelo 101  73 101  63 /  10  10   0   0
Junction   103  74 104  66 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   95  72  96  63 /  20  10   0   0
Sweetwater  98  71  97  65 /  20  10   0   0
Ozona       99  72  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       96  73  96  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24