702
FXUS64 KSJT 291927
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
227 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Not really much to add to the ongoing short term forecast as the
hot and dry conditions continue. More cloud cover today has
somewhat limited temperatures, but there has been some small
decrease in thickness values and 850mb temperatures as well.
Models suggest some of this drop will continue Sunday well, with
guidance temperatures mainly in the 98-102 range. Have gone above
guidance a degree or two but this is still cooler than what we
have been looking at most of the last week. With that in mind,
will probably trip back the Heat Advisory along the western
counties some, where lower dewpoints will keep Heat Index values
down a few degrees verse what we will be looking at across the
area east of an Abilene to Brady line.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The main weather concern over the next week will be the heat. The
upper level ridge will continue to sit over our area and dominate
our weather for most of the long term period. The ridge will start
to shift eastward on Tuesday, and will eventually start to weaken as
a shortwave trough moves over the northern U.S. Thursday into
Friday. Temperatures will stay above-normal, with much of the area
in the triple digits, for most of the work week. Surface winds
should generally remain from the south/southeast keeping moisture
and heat index values high. Looking at the Fourth of July
specifically, forecast highs are in the upper 90s to around 105
degrees, with heat index values around 107 in some areas. San Angelo
and Abilene are forecast to be in the extreme category for both WBGT
and Heat Risk for the fourth. So, there will be a very high risk for
heat-related impacts for those that celebrate outdoors. There is a
slight chance for precipitation in the northern Big Country late
Thursday evening and overnight. But chances look better for later
Friday and into Saturday.

A surface low is expected to develop over the northern U.S. as the
shortwave moves over that area. We could see a weak cold front,
associated with that low, move through Friday into Saturday.
Precipitation will be possible along the front as it moves south.
We`ll have a better idea on timing and amounts as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Earlier MVFR cigs have lifted into a VFR deck late this morning
and is on its way to scattering out for the afternoon at many
locations. Expect more of the same tomorrow. South to southeast
winds will prevail and will continue to be gusty at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  74 103  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    73  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  78 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       73  98  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-
Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...07