961
FXUS64 KSJT 241103
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
603 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The 500mb subtropical ridge across the southwest and south central
United States will continue to provide subsidence across west
central Texas today through tonight. Low to mid level moisture will
continue to be limited across northwest Texas as a result. Hot and
dry conditions will persist this afternoon with temperatures in the
middle to upper 90s across most of the CWA except across portions of
the Concho Valley where highs will likely reach at least 100 degrees
and across portions of the Big Country where highs will approach 100
degrees. Temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 70s by
Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The summer doldrums for West Central Texas will be the main
weather story for the next 7 to 10 days, with generally hot and
dry conditions prevailing across the area. The upper level ridge
axis centered over Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma for the start
and middle of the week will gradually weaken slightly for the
weekend and then recenter closer to the lour Mississippi Valley
for early next week. That brief weakening over the weekend may be
enough to allow a few storms to sneak into the Panhandle and
Oklahoma and then perhaps south of the Red River into the northern
Big Country. Will continue the slight chance of POPs mentioned
for Saturday and Sunday.

The hot temperatures will continue with readings generally 98 to
103 across West Central Texas. Will flirt with Heat Advisory for
Tuesday and Wednesday in a few counties across the Big Country and
Heartland, where dewpoints are forecasted to be a little higher
and drive heat index values up a few extra degrees.
Evapotranspiration (pulling moisture up into the atmosphere from
moist soils and green plants) will play a role in this so there is
a little uncertainty is just how effective this will be. Will
hold off on a Heat Advisory for now and get a better feel for how
dewpoints react the next few afternoons.

As the ridge weakens slightly over the weekend, it may be enough
to allow highs to drop back closer to seasonal normals in the 95
to 100 range. They likely start to climb back above the 100 degree
mark as the ridge re-strengthens next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Satellite images and surface observations indicate a few low to mid
level clouds across southern portions of the CWA early this
morning. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across west central
Texas this morning through this afternoon as the 500mb subtropical
ridge across the southwest and south central United States
continues to provide subsidence across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 100  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    96  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   96  76  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  98  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       94  74  96  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...61