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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR
634 FXCA62 TJSJ 021840 AAA AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR 240 PM AST Tue Jul 2 2024 .UPDATE... The Probability of Precipitation was reduced for eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, based on the latest observations. The rainband associated to Hurricane Beryl is now located over the southern Mona Channel. The temperatures were reduced a little too, since skies are completely gray at this time. The main hazard associated with Beryl are the deterioration of marine and coastal conditions. There have been several reports of sea water reaching roads across southeastern Puerto Rico. These dangerous conditions are expected to linger into the night hours. && .&& .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 510 AM AST Tue Jul 2 2024/ .SYNOPSIS... Major Hurricane Beryl continues to move WNW over the Caribbean waters and south of the local area. Unstable weather conditions are expected throughout the day with the arrival of bands of heavy showers and gusty winds. The biggest impact to our islands from Beryl are the chaotic seas due to a strong swells across Caribbean regional waters with breaking waves up to 18 feet. Conditions will gradually improve by Wednesday, with the arrival of drier air. Nonetheless, Invest 96L is forecast to approach the area on Thursday and will enhance the potential for active weather through Friday. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday... Breezy to windy conditions will prevail throughout the day across the islands as Major Hurricane Beryl continues to pass south and away from the region. Outer rainbands from Beryl will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms across all islands and waters through at least this afternoon. Quick-moving showers with periods of heavy rainfall could lead to urban and small-stream flooding and localized flash flooding. Due to the fast-moving nature of these showers, rainfall accumulations should generally range between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated higher amounts. However, the main hazards from Beryl will be the dangerous seas across the Caribbean waters and portions of the Mona and Anegada Passages, as well as the life- threatening rip currents with high surf conditions and possible coastal flooding across the Caribbean coastline of all the islands. Weather conditions should improve by this evening and continue through Wednesday as a Saharan Air Layer with drier air and suspended Saharan dust moves from the east. Therefore, hazy skies, warm to hot temperatures, and limited shower development are expected through late Wednesday. A tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean on Thursday, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity again across the USVI and PR. .LONG TERM... The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area of low pressure (Invest 96L) located in the Central Tropical Atlantic with a low formation chance over the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. This low pressure is expected to move quickly over the Caribbean waters on Thursday, and move away from the local area by Friday morning. However, lingering moisture associated to the Invest 96L will generate showers and isolated thunderstorms across the islands and regional waters. By Saturday morning this activity will move over the Mona Passage and The Hispaniola. A mass of drier air is expected to follow and move over the region, promoting fair weather conditions through the beginning of the workweek. Despite of the presence of drier air, patches of moisture will be moving into the area. This, in combination with daytime heating and local effects will increase the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Latest model guidance suggest the arrival of a tropical wave between Monday night and Tuesday morning. Therefore, an increase in moisture is expected along with the potential for convective activity across the islands. Regardless of the expected weather, daytime temperatures will continue warm to hot. Highs will remain in the range between the mid to upper 80s and low 90s along the coastal and urban areas and heat indices surpassing the mid 100s each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) SHRA/TSRA have cleared off of land areas. Dust and haze will continue to take visibilities as low as 8 sm. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected East winds increasing at 20-25 kt with stronger gusts slowly subsiding 02/22-03/12Z. && .MARINE... Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue today as Major Hurricane Beryl moves westward across the Caribbean Basin, far to the south of the regional waters. This will cause hazardous marine and coastal conditions to prevail especially for the Caribbean Waters and Passages. The outer bands of Beryl may produce squally weather throughout the day. && .BEACH FORECAST... Dangerous breaking waves up to 18 feet are anticipated today for the southern coastlines. Some of these areas in Puerto Rico include: Patillas (Road PR-3, Sector La Guarda Raya, communities near Inches Beach, and the fishing village; Guayanilla (El Faro community); Ponce (La Playa neighborhood); Guayama (Villa Real, Quebrada Branderi, Playita Machete, Barrancas, Pozuelo); Salinas (Playa Salinas and Playita); Santa Isabel (Jauca); Juana Diaz (Pastillo and Manzanillo); and Arroyo (Barrio Pueblo and Playita Cortada). && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ002-012-013. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ002-003-007- 011-013. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ003-007- 011-013. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ003-007- 011. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ002. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711-716- 723. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ726-735-745. Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Wednesday for AMZ733-741. && $$ SHORT TERM AND AVIATION...ERG IDSS AND PUBLIC DESK....YZR/MRR