Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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799 FXUS62 KTAE 290127 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 927 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Still a fairly active radar this evening, which is a big change from just a few days ago. With at PW of 2.27 inches this evening on the KTAE sounding, which based on climatology is well above the 90th percentile, and in fact it is just 0.08 in shy of a record for the 00z sounding on this date, shows a tropical airmass is entrenched across the region. So, with a very moist environment and modest southwesterly flow in place and a weak trough in the area, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. As a result, to match radar trends and the latest guidance from some hi-res members, have increased PoPs overnight, especially over the land areas, especially to the west of a Tallahassee to Albany line, which seems to be the area most favored for storm development or track of storms through the night as areas further to the east. Since storm motions are about 10kt, outside of training over the same area, flash flooding should not be a concern, however, some of the storms already this evening have produced 1-2 inches of rain in just under an hour. Outside of any thunderstorms it will be a warm and muggy night with lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The shortwave trough that sparked storms across the region today will move off to our east as high pressure builds in to our west. With larger scale subsidence entering the region, clouds should begin to erode resulting in somewhat sunnier conditions tomorrow. However, PWATs are expected to ramp up to around 2.2-2.5" as a moist unstable airmass remains in place over the area leading to another partly cloudy and stormy afternoon tomorrow afternoon. Despite weaker forcing compared to previous afternoons, the high PWAT`s and ample instability (CAPE ranging from 2500-3000J/kg) should compensate with widespread but isolated convection forming across the area. Severe storms aren`t anticipated at this time, though some stronger gusts are possible. Tonights low temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 70s across the area with highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 90s. With ample moisture in place, our FL counties and southernmost tier of SW GA counties may flirt with heat indices close to heat advisory criteria. Regardless of if there is an advisory or not, it will still be quite hot and muggy outside. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light clothes, and take care of yourselves. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Upper level trough will dissipate through the weekend as an upper ridge develops over the central portions of the US. The axis from the upper level ridge will nose into Alabama/Georgia and as it does, steering flow for storms on Sunday will be roughly from the west and northwest. This will likely keep the seabreeze closer to the coast so rain chances on Sunday will likely be highest across our Florida counties, but with low-level 1000-700mb flow not too strong, the seabreeze should still make good inland progress into Alabama and Georgia in the afternoon and scattered to widespread showers and storms are still likely across our inland counties/states. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The upper level ridge over the central US will remain fairly entrenched through the period as any significant frontal forcing remains well north of the area. Deep-layer moisture should stick around through the upcoming week, but with ridge occasionally limiting upper level support for storms, expect a slow decrease in coverage each afternoon through the upcoming week, especially after Monday. Despite the ridge`s influence on the weather, the deep-layer moisture should give much of the area daily chances for scattered showers and storms, especially in the Florida counties where occasional bouts of tropical moisture move into the area from the southeast. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s but as conditions possibly dry out some next week, the forecast will see afternoon temperatures climb into the mid and upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 737 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 MVFR to VFR cigs will transition to prevailing VFR as the sun sets, allowing for the winding down of showers and storms. A few hours prior to sunrise tomorrow terminals may experience patchy fog, especially at terminals that were impacted by rain today. This would lead to higher confidence at TLH/DHN/ABY and VLD. A drop to MVFR visibilities could be possible. After sunrise tomorrow morning an improvement to VFR is expected until scattered showers and storms come around again tomorrow afternoon across the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Southwesterly flow around 10 knots and seas around 2 to 3 feet will prevail through most of the weekend until a weak frontal boundary pushes into the Gulf and winds become light and variable early next week. Some increase in seas is possible over the weekend, mostly due to long period swells moving north from the southern Caribbean where a current tropical wave is passing through. Scattered showers and storms are expected through the weekend and early next week with activity generally greatest in the early morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Over the next few days, mixing heights generally ranging from 4000-5000ft with transport winds 5-15mph out of the south, gradually clocking west with time, will keep dispersions elevated across the area. Each day will feature afternoon thunderstorms as a moist and unstable airmass remains in place over the region with gusty and erratic winds near and within these storms. At this time, there are no fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Rainfall amounts through the next 5 days will generally be around 1 to 3 inches, though with deep-layer moisture staying in place for a few more days, localized higher amounts are possible. No widespread flooding concerns are anticipated, but slow moving and training storms could bring localized instances of flooding, especially in poor drainage areas and urban environments due to high rainfall rates. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 76 94 76 94 / 30 70 20 70 Panama City 80 90 79 91 / 50 50 20 70 Dothan 74 92 75 93 / 40 60 20 70 Albany 74 95 76 94 / 30 50 30 70 Valdosta 74 95 76 95 / 20 60 30 70 Cross City 75 93 76 94 / 30 70 30 70 Apalachicola 80 89 79 90 / 50 50 20 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Worster SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY...Dobbs