323
FXUS62 KTAE 231714
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
114 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The biggest news is the formation of Potential Tropical Cyclone #9
in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest track from the
National Hurricane Center (NHC) has it moving through the Yucatan
Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. From there, it rapidly heads north-northeast through the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and nearing the Florida Big Bend during the
day Thursday. PTC9 is forecast to be a large system with winds well
ahead of the center of circulation. This would could lead to
worsening conditions later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Use today and tomorrow to complete any necessary preparation.

As far as today`s forecast is concerned, the forecast is on track
with no changes needed.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Ridging aloft will continue to keep warm and dry conditions across
the area through the near term. High pressure at the surface will
keep winds fairly light and variable, although some weak troughing
near the Carolinas and north Georgia could introduce a few more
clouds across the northern portions of the area compared to
yesterday. Highs are forecast in the low to mid 90s this afternoon
with lows in the low 70s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

We`ll begin to transition away from a drier and warmer pattern to
a stormy and wet one as attention begins to turn to potential
tropical development lifting north out of the Caribbean. While
much of this activity will likely not near the forecast area until
the long term period below, we`ll begin to see increasing east and
southeasterly flow Tuesday into Wednesday night. Rain chances will
generally be confined to the coastal locations and across the
Panhandle on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Our attention is quickly turning towards the potential for a
tropical system in our forecast area by later this week. The
greatest points of uncertainty with this system revolve around
intensity and track. 00z model ensemble guidance still continues to
paint a large possibility of outcomes, and this was also observed
in the 00z regional hurricane model guidance. While the spread in
potential tracks has lessened compared to this point 24 hours
ago, a range of landfall locations from the Florida Panhandle to
the Peninsula of Florida are still on the table. The timeframe for
potential impacts appears to Thursday into Friday, though some
impacts could arrive as early as late Wednesday evening depending
if some of the faster solutions end up verifying. With a center
still yet to form, guidance is still prone to large amounts of
errors at these lead times. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon which will hopefully bring
important data to global and regional hurricane models.

While specific impacts are still highly uncertain, much of the
northern and eastern Gulf should be preparing for the possibility
of a hurricane bringing potentially significant impacts later this
week. Additionally, heavy rains will accompany this system and
the region is somewhat vulnerable to flooding. This vulnerability
arises due to past heavy rainfall from Debby in August across the
Florida Big Bend, and a wetter than normal September so far for
much of the area. Of additional concern is storm surge. Some of
the stronger possibilities for this storm would bring potentially
significant storm surge to the Apalachee Bay and/or Panhandle
coastal regions. However, the specific impacts and values with
surge and rainfall are still highly dependent on track and we`ll
begin to have a better idea of those early values in the next 24
to 36 hours.

At this point, residents should begin to check their hurricane kits
to evaluate any needed supplies and/or content that needs to be
refreshed. More preparedness information can be found by visiting
ready.gov/hurricanes and floridadisaster.org.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
the period along with light and variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Light to gentle breezes out of the east-southeast will
persist through Tuesday night. After which, stronger easterly
flow in advance of a potential tropical disturbance will begin to
develop into Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, attention turns to
the potential for tropical development lifting north toward our
area, though uncertainty remains high at this time with respect to
the track of the storm. Advisory or tropical storm conditions
appear possible across our waters beginning as early as Wednesday
evening and likely by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue for the next couple
of days before rain chances begin to ramp up once again Wednesday
onward. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Dry conditions are expected to continue through midweek with
no hydrological concerns until later this week. Chances for rain
return midweek as tropical moisture begins to enter the area with
chances for tropical conditions accompanying this as well. High
rainfall amounts are possible with the forecast. If the storm were
to move through our area, riverine flooding and areal/flash
flooding would be likely given wet antecedent conditions.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  71  91  73 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   90  73  90  74 /   0   0  20  20
Dothan        94  71  92  71 /   0   0  10  20
Albany        94  72  92  72 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      93  71  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    93  70  93  74 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  88  75  86  76 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs