Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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946 FXUS62 KTAE 182000 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 400 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Showers with isolated, embedded thunderstorms were developing southeast of a Defuniak Springs, FL - Fitzgerald, GA line as of late this afternoon. The main concern with will be local poor drainage flooding, mainly in the FL Big Bend, where the activity is having a tendency to train. This is diurnally driven and will diminish with the setting sun. Late tonight, patchy fog is expected to develop over much of the region and could be locally dense. The fog is expected to dissipate by 10 AM ET/9 AM CT on Thursday. A much drier pattern will take hold on Thursday, with only a slight chance of showers in the afternoon near the I-75 corridor and eastern FL Big Bend. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs on Thursday in the mid-80s to near 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure builds in from the west, which will usher in drier air to the region. High temperatures for Friday will be in the upper 89s across SW GA, while SE AL warms into the lower 90s which is about couple of degrees above normal for this time of year. Our overnight lows will be above normal and in the upper 60s to low 70s for Thursday night and Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Models and ensembles depict upper level high pressure through the long term. Dry weather is expected as well with temperatures generally remaining above normal for this time of years. Highs will generally upper 80s to low 90s through early next week, with perhaps the mid to upper 80s being possible on Tuesday. Overnight lows remain elevated in the upper 60s to low 70s. For those watching the tropics, the National Hurricane Center has placed 20% chance of development in the northwest Caribbean Sea or Yucatan channel next week. Global models and ensembles continue to indicate some sort of tropical development, but there is significant spread and run-to-run variability as to where it might go. Thus it is too soon determine any potential impacts. Please stay tuned to the forecast here with us and over at hurricanes.gov. Now is a good time to check on your hurricane kits. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 For this afternoon and evening, brief MVFR in TSRA at TLH and VLD, with VCTS at ECP. Thunder should end 22Z-00Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions. For late tonight and Thursday morning, the main concern will be the development of fog, generally in the 09Z-14Z time frame. Confidence in fog is highest at ABY and VLD, with a couple hours of LIFR. Sufficient confidence for a couple hours of MVFR at DHN and TLH. Confidence lower regarding the category restrictions. Meanwhile, don`t expect fog at ECP with this forecast, so maintained VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Wind will vary from the west and north today and Friday, before east to northeast flow returns this weekend and holds into mid next week. Next week, we may see periods of cautionary conditions and higher seas during the overnight hours. In terms of showers and thunderstorms, we may see some nocturnal or morning development tonight and into tomorrow. Otherwise drier conditions should prevail into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Drier conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, and fuels are currently moist from recent rainfall. In addition, dispersions are forecast to be fair. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Today is the last best shot for heavy showers and thunderstorms, before drier air works into the region. Localized flooding remains possible with any slower moving cells or areas of training, especially in urban or poor drainage areas. No riverine flooding is expected at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 88 71 89 / 20 10 0 0 Panama City 73 88 73 89 / 10 10 0 0 Dothan 69 88 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 69 87 70 89 / 10 10 0 0 Valdosta 70 87 70 88 / 20 10 0 0 Cross City 72 88 72 90 / 20 20 0 10 Apalachicola 73 86 74 86 / 10 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...LF MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...KR