152
FXUS62 KTAE 220104
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
904 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

No major changes needed to the forecast. Some high clouds are
spilling into our northern counties and increased sky cover a
minor amount. Fog remains a possibility in the predawn hours
along the I75 corridor and eastern Florida Big Bend. Lows will
bottom out in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Dry weather will continue through the weekend with high pressure
continuing to build into the region. Conditions are favorable for
the development of fog overnight into Sunday morning, especially
Southwest GA into portions of the FL Big Bend until around 9 AM
ET.

Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs on Saturday
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, in general a couple degrees above
late September averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Ridging will continue through the duration of the short term
ushering in dry and pleasant conditions to kick off the week.
Large scale subsidence as ridging settles in will keep skies clear
with little chances for rain all day with light and variable
winds out of the east. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to
low 70s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Forecast certainty becomes quite murky as we pass midweek and
becomes more uncertain as we approach the weekend. However,
ridging is expected to persist through at least midweek with
precipitation chances increasing gradually into the weekend as
tropical moisture begins to push into the region. Additionally, an
easterly surge of wind will develop as early as late Wednesday
with a tightening pressure gradient perhaps resulting in advisory
conditions over our waters.

Similar to yesterday, guidance continues to diverge notably as we
approach Thursday and move into the weekend regarding tropical
development and the upper level pattern. Models indicate that a
deep upper trough may form over the central united states, as was
shown yesterday. This upper level pattern would be supportive of a
tropical system moving north through the Gulf of Mexico, IF a
system were to develop in time. Uncertainty still remains quite
high regarding placement of the aforementioned trough and the
exact location and time that a system *might* develop, and any
change with these variables would have notable impacts regarding
what could happen 7+ days from today. IF any tropical impacts were
to occur, the timeframe would be late next week into the weekend.
Currently, the NHC has highlighted an area with a 60% chance of
tropical formation over the northwest Caribbean up to the Gulf of
Mexico through the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Overnight patchy fog remains a possibility, especially at VLD and
areas along I75 into the Florida Big Bend. Otherwise, VFR conds
will prevail with light north to northeast winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Generally light east-northeasterly winds will prevail through the
middle of next week with calm seas generally around 1 to 2 feet,
increasing to 3 to 4 feet by midweek as easterlies become more
established over our waters. Rainfall chances begin to increase
once again over our waters beginning Tuesday, increasing as the
week continues with some showers thunderstorms possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Dry weather continues through early next week with minimum afternoon
RH values dipping into the 40s to mid-50s away from the coast. No
major concerns with fair dispersions in order over the next couple
of days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Dry conditions are expected to continue this weekend through midweek
with no hydrological concerns at the moment. Currently, the CPC
has above normal probabilities for precipitation for our area in
their extended (8-10 day) forecast likely due to anticipated
development of a tropical disturbance. As of now, it is too early
to discern any hydrological impacts regarding our area given high
uncertainty.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  91  71  92 /   0  10   0   0
Panama City   73  90  73  90 /  10  10   0   0
Dothan        70  92  71  93 /   0  10   0   0
Albany        69  92  71  92 /  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    67  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  74  86  74  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Worster