518
FXUS62 KTAE 220713
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
313 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Another beautiful day on tap for the region as high pressure remains
at the surface and a mid-level ridge axis overhead. Dry and warm
conditions are expected with light winds under mostly sunny skies. A
bit of patchy fog will be possible across portions of the
southeastern FL Big Bend and south central Georgia around sunrise.
Highs today are generally forecast in the low to mid 90s with lows
tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Fairly quiet conditions are expected on Monday with upper level
ridging in control of the weather pattern. High temperatures will be
well above normal and in the low to mid 90s on Monday with slightly
cooler temperatures in the low 90s on Tuesday as we begin to see an
increase in lower level moisture.

Rain chances mostly stay out of the forecast but an isolated shower
could affect portions of the Panhandle on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A very challenging forecast will play out late in the upcoming week
and into the the weekend as attention quickly turns to the tropics.
Global models and their ensembles have continued to indicate a high
probability of tropical development this week and whatever becomes
of that development will lift north into the southern Gulf by the
middle of the week. One of the challenging forecast problems with
this system is where it will form, and what the synoptic steering
environment will look like ahead of it. The main uncertainty in
track revolves around a large upper level low that could cutoff
across the central US. In these solutions, whatever lifts north
out of the tropics would likely end up further west across the
north-central Gulf (shown somewhat by the 12z Euro and 00z
Canadian) while a more progressive upper level pattern shown by
the 00z GFS would likely lead to a storm further east, possibly
into the Florida Peninsula. With model ensemble tracks still
showing very high levels of uncertainty, folks all along the Gulf
Coast should continue to monitor development progress. If we see
potential impacts from this disturbance across the northeast Gulf,
it would likely be anytime from Thursday at the earliest to next
weekend at the latest. We`ll have more information in the coming
days as the picture becomes more clear.

Ahead of the potential tropical trouble, expect increasing moisture
and possibly a return to isolated showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Patchy fog will be possible across eastern portions of the area
and may impact KVLD for a few hours around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

East and southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots with occasional
nocturnal surges to 15 knots are likely through Tuesday of the
upcoming week with low seas around 2 feet or less. Beginning on
Wednesday attention turns to potential tropical disturbance
lifting north out of the Caribbean. The track of this system
remains highly uncertain, but it`s likely higher winds and seas
will move into our waters by late next week, possibly bringing
tropical storm conditions or advisory level conditions depending
where the development goes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Dry conditions and relatively light winds are expected for the next
couple of days with high pressure over the area. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Dry conditions continue into the early part of the upcoming week.
Rain chances quickly return by later in the week, but amounts will
likely be dependent on the future track of any potential tropical
development. While no flooding is ongoing, large rainfall amounts
accompanying a potential tropical system would likely bring riverine
and/or areal/flash flooding IF it moves towards the northeast Gulf
Coast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  70  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   91  73  91  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        93  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        93  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      92  68  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    92  68  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  86  72  87  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs