913
FXUS62 KTAE 290547
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
147 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Still a fairly active radar this evening, which is a big change
from just a few days ago. With at PW of 2.27 inches this evening
on the KTAE sounding, which based on climatology is well above the
90th percentile, and in fact it is just 0.08 in shy of a record
for the 00z sounding on this date, shows a tropical airmass is
entrenched across the region. So, with a very moist environment
and modest southwesterly flow in place and a weak trough in the
area, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to continue through
the evening and into the overnight hours. As a result, to match
radar trends and the latest guidance from some hi-res members,
have increased PoPs overnight, especially over the land areas,
especially to the west of a Tallahassee to Albany line, which
seems to be the area most favored for storm development or track
of storms through the night as areas further to the east. Since
storm motions are about 10kt, outside of training over the same
area, flash flooding should not be a concern, however, some of the
storms already this evening have produced 1-2 inches of rain in
just under an hour.

Outside of any thunderstorms it will be a warm and muggy night
with lows generally in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The shortwave trough that sparked storms across the region
today will move off to our east as high pressure builds in to our
west. With larger scale subsidence entering the region, clouds
should begin to erode resulting in somewhat sunnier conditions
tomorrow. However, PWATs are expected to ramp up to around 2.2-2.5"
as a moist unstable airmass remains in place over the area leading
to another partly cloudy and stormy afternoon tomorrow afternoon.
Despite weaker forcing compared to previous afternoons, the high
PWAT`s and ample instability (CAPE ranging from 2500-3000J/kg)
should compensate with widespread but isolated convection forming
across the area. Severe storms aren`t anticipated at this time,
though some stronger gusts are possible.

Tonights low temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to upper
70s across the area with highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 90s.
With ample moisture in place, our FL counties and southernmost tier
of SW GA counties may flirt with heat indices close to heat advisory
criteria. Regardless of if there is an advisory or not, it will
still be quite hot and muggy outside. Make sure to drink plenty of
water, wear light clothes, and take care of yourselves.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Upper level trough will dissipate through the weekend as an upper
ridge develops over the central portions of the US. The axis from
the upper level ridge will nose into Alabama/Georgia and as it
does, steering flow for storms on Sunday will be roughly from the
west and northwest. This will likely keep the seabreeze closer to
the coast so rain chances on Sunday will likely be highest across
our Florida counties, but with low-level 1000-700mb flow not too
strong, the seabreeze should still make good inland progress into
Alabama and Georgia in the afternoon and scattered to widespread
showers and storms are still likely across our inland
counties/states.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The upper level ridge over the central US will remain fairly
entrenched through the period as any significant frontal forcing
remains well north of the area. Deep-layer moisture should stick
around through the upcoming week, but with ridge occasionally
limiting upper level support for storms, expect a slow decrease in
coverage each afternoon through the upcoming week, especially
after Monday. Despite the ridge`s influence on the weather, the
deep-layer moisture should give much of the area daily chances
for scattered showers and storms, especially in the Florida
counties where occasional bouts of tropical moisture move into the
area from the southeast. Temperatures will be in the low to mid
90s but as conditions possibly dry out some next week, the
forecast will see afternoon temperatures climb into the mid and
upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are meandering over the
service area this morning, while satellite shows a varying sky
state of mostly clear to partly cloud skies west of the Flint and
Apalachicola Rivers and partly to mostly cloud east of that line.
Cigs have generally been reporting VFR this morning, though that
could change for at least KABY and KVLD where MVFR or even IFR
cigs are possible. Opted to remove the mention for 6SM BR for
these areas and hint at the possibility for the lower cigs. TAFs
may need to be amended for those should the lower clouds come to
fruition between 08-12Z. Any clouds that do develop should lift
after sunrise, placing us back in our typical summer time weather
pattern. Showers and storms will be possible during the afternoon
and early evening hours and may be possible of reducing cigs and
vis at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Southwesterly flow around 10 knots and seas around 2 to 3 feet
will prevail through most of the weekend until a weak frontal
boundary pushes into the Gulf and winds become light and variable
early next week. Some increase in seas is possible over the
weekend, mostly due to long period swells moving north from the
southern Caribbean where a current tropical wave is passing
through. Scattered showers and storms are expected through the
weekend and early next week with activity generally greatest in
the early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Over the next few days, mixing heights generally ranging from
4000-5000ft with transport winds 5-15mph out of the south, gradually
clocking west with time, will keep dispersions elevated across the
area. Each day will feature afternoon thunderstorms as a moist and
unstable airmass remains in place over the region with gusty and
erratic winds near and within these storms. At this time, there are
no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Rainfall amounts through the next 5 days will generally be around
1 to 3 inches, though with deep-layer moisture staying in place
for a few more days, localized higher amounts are possible. No
widespread flooding concerns are anticipated, but slow moving and
training storms could bring localized instances of flooding,
especially in poor drainage areas and urban environments due to
high rainfall rates.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  76  94  76 /  70  20  70  50
Panama City   90  79  91  78 /  50  20  70  60
Dothan        92  75  93  76 /  60  20  70  40
Albany        95  76  94  76 /  50  30  70  40
Valdosta      95  76  95  75 /  60  30  70  50
Cross City    93  76  94  76 /  70  30  70  50
Apalachicola  89  79  90  78 /  50  20  70  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs