Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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013 FGUS72 KTAE 042017 ESFTAE FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-065-073-077-129-131-133-051800- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 417 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 ...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASING LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... .Antecedent Conditions... Over the last month, rainfall has been sparse across the Florida Panhandle, with many areas more than 4 to 6 inches below normal for August. This has led to below to well below normal streamflows, rapidly increasing drought conditions, and an elevated fire risk. Conditions further east of the Apalachicola River are better, with rainfall deficits not as extreme, or in the areas east of the Aucilla River, rainfall surpluses are common in the wake of Hurricane Debby. .Forecast and Outlook... A frontal zone in place across the Gulf Coast States will remain in place into Saturday. By Thursday evening, a weak area of low pressure and upper level disturbance will move along this frontal zone, enhancing the potential for heavy rainfall, some of which could be significant by Friday. The most significant rains are expected to be focused along the Florida Panhandle Coast, with some potential for impactful rainfall further inland, south of the Florida State Line. Rainfall amounts along the immediate coast could be as much as 6 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Further inland throughout the remainder of the outlook area in Florida, rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible. Within the urban coastal zone, rainfall amounts of this magnitude could cause considerable flash flooding on Friday into Saturday with isolated flash flooding possible elsewhere in interior portions of the Florida Panhandle. Due to the extensive dry conditions and the heaviest rains falling near the coast, riverine flooding is not expected with this event. .Preparedness Information... There still remains some uncertainty as to where the heaviest rainfall will occur. However a flood watch may be needed by Thursday. Now is a good time to prepare if you live in an area vulnerable to flash flooding or riverine flooding. Flooding is especially dangerous at night. If you live in a flood zone, know your risk and be prepared to take action should heavier rainfall occur. For the latest forecasts visit our website at https://weather. gov/tallahassee $$ Godsey