Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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417 FXUS62 KTBW 280015 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 815 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 No changes made to existing forecast. Theme of coastal shower and storm chances during the morning into afternoon before spreading to the interior during the afternoon continues as high pressure ridging remains over the southern Gulf providing W-SW flow across the area. Humid conditions expected to persist with temps running near average, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows mainly in the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Florida remains situated between upper ridging extending westward through the Florida Strait and upper troughing over the southeast U.S. On the surface, high pressure ridges south of Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is producing a continuing predominant light onshore west-southwest flow over the region and will continue through the end of the week. Slow moving showers and storms continue to fire up over the area and traverse eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these slow moving showers and storms could produce some localized flooding in heavy downpours. By Saturday morning, the Atlantic ridge will shift slightly northward, with the ridge centered across the Florida peninsula. This will bring some south-southeast winds over the east coast, but light onshore winds will also be possible over northern half of the CWA and northeastern gulf waters. Abundant moisture with PWAT values between 1.7 - 2.1 inches will persist through the forecast period. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible each day through the period. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 90`s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows will remain in the 70`s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Little change compared to previous days with W-SW flow continuing trend of morning through afternoon shower and storm chances before diminishing late afternoon into evening as activity moves east of terminals. Brief restrictions possible across terminals under convection, otherwise VFR expected with winds 5-10 knots, highest in afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure ridging west through the Florida Strait and into the central Gulf of Mexico will maintain a west-southwest onshore flow heading into the weekend. Over the weekend, wind directions may become more variable as the high pressure ridge begins to shift slightly northward. This should be relatively brief, though, as the onshore flow is set to resume early next week. Winds will be light, not exceeding 15 knots with wave heights 2 feet or less throughout the period. As usual, some scattered showers and storms can be expected daily through the next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A typical summertime pattern continues over the area with abundant moisture, warm temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers and isolated storms expected each day through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 92 80 93 / 10 40 20 60 FMY 79 93 78 94 / 0 30 20 60 GIF 76 93 76 93 / 0 50 20 60 SRQ 79 92 78 94 / 10 30 20 60 BKV 75 93 74 94 / 10 50 20 60 SPG 84 92 83 94 / 20 40 20 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION//MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close