766
FXUS62 KTBW 191145
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
745 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Showers and storms
continue to form over the eastern gulf waters and will approach the
west coast of Florida through the early morning hours. Will cover
this with VCTS at all terminals through 15Z and TEMPO TSRA for
TPA/PGD/FMY/RSW through 13Z. No weather restrictions are expected at
all terminals after 15Z. Winds will remain less than 10 knots
outside of thunderstorm activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A fairly active morning, compared to what we have see over the
last few days. Showers and maybe a storm or two have been
developing mainly along the coast as west to southwest flow
pushes them onshore. Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough
centered over the Northeast and stretching down into the SE should
crawl its way east through the next few days. At the same time, a
weak front should move across the peninsula later today and into
Friday. Slightly drier air around these features should limit
storm coverage through the period, but isolated to scattered are
still anticipated. Afternoon temperatures remain pretty constant
peaking around 90 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A weak front should move across the area today shifting winds from
the northwest. Then, ridge of high pressure builds going into the
weekend and early next week. East to northeasterly winds prevail
at around 10 knots with evening surges bumping winds up to around
15 knots, possibly exercise caution levels early next week. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through the period. No headlines are expected through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  75  90  75 /  30   0  10  10
FMY  90  75  92  75 /  60  30  40  20
GIF  92  74  92  74 /  40  10  20   0
SRQ  90  75  92  74 /  30   0  20  20
BKV  91  71  91  70 /  20   0  10   0
SPG  90  79  91  77 /  30   0  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Anderson