395
FXUS62 KTBW 271845
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Florida remains situated between upper ridging extending westward
through the Florida Strait and upper troughing over the southeast
U.S. On the surface, high pressure ridges south of Florida and into
the central Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is producing a continuing
predominant light onshore west-southwest flow over the region and
will continue through the end of the week. Slow moving showers and
storms continue to fire up over the area and traverse eastward
through the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these slow moving
showers and storms could produce some localized flooding in heavy
downpours.

By Saturday morning, the Atlantic ridge will shift slightly
northward, with the ridge centered across the Florida peninsula.
This will bring some south-southeast winds over the east coast, but
light onshore winds will also be possible over northern half of the
CWA and northeastern gulf waters. Abundant moisture with PWAT values
between 1.7 - 2.1 inches will persist through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible each day
through the period. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid
90`s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows will
remain in the 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. West-southwest
winds around 5-10 knots will persist through the day. Will hold VCTS
to cover thunderstorms today through 00Z for all terminals. Storms
move farther inland after 00Z with rain-free conditions and light
winds 5 knots or less expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

High pressure ridging west through the Florida Strait and into the
central Gulf of Mexico will maintain a west-southwest onshore flow
heading into the weekend. Over the weekend, wind directions may
become more variable as the high pressure ridge begins to shift
slightly northward. This should be relatively brief, though, as the
onshore flow is set to resume early next week. Winds will be light,
not exceeding 15 knots with wave heights 2 feet or less throughout
the period. As usual, some scattered showers and storms can be
expected daily through the next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A typical summertime pattern continues over the area with abundant
moisture, warm temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers and
isolated storms expected each day through the end of the week and
into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  92  80  93 /  10  40  20  60
FMY  79  93  78  94 /   0  30  20  60
GIF  76  93  76  93 /   0  50  20  60
SRQ  79  92  78  94 /  10  30  20  60
BKV  75  93  74  94 /  10  50  20  60
SPG  84  92  83  94 /  20  40  20  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis