Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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513 FXUS62 KTBW 250041 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 841 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Stacked ridging remains in place over the region keeping the hot and mainly dry conditions in place this evening, overnight and into Saturday. Latest grids and forecasts on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue with winds becoming light/variable shortly with clearing skies. Similar conditions Sat as winds become onshore in the afternoon with some cumulus clouds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Hot, muggy, and mostly dry will be the story for the holiday weekend and into early next week. Strong ridging across the Eastern U.S. is leading to above normal temperatures and continued dry conditions for the Sunshine State. As a shortwave approaches the region, moisture will begin to increase this afternoon. This will lead to relative humidity values around 40 percent and feels like temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. A westerly sea breeze this afternoon will help to make the warm temperatures more bearable. Westerly flow on Saturday along with PWATs over 1.5 inches and shortwave energy could lead to a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across the interior. The warming trend will continue through the weekend and into next week with temperatures approaching record territory. Widespread high temperatures in the middle 90s are expected, with locations across interior Florida reaching into the upper 90s. A few spots may even approach the 100 degree mark this holiday weekend. A frontal boundary will approach the area on Tuesday bringing slightly increasing chances of rainfall on Tuesday afternoon. The better chances will remain over central Florida with around 40 percent chance of storms. This front will bring little relief from the heat with highs in the lower to middle 90s expected the rest of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Southeasterly winds this morning will turn onshore this afternoon near the coast. Winds shift to the west for the weekend as the ridge axis shifts south. With high pressure dominating the weather pattern, dry conditions are expected into early next week. A weak cold front will push into the area Tuesday, with a few showers and storms possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Above average temperatures continue through the period. A few inland locations could see RH values approach critical thresholds today, otherwise increasing moisture will keep values in the 40-50 percent range this weekend and upcoming week. A few storms are possible inland for Saturday later afternoon, otherwise dry through Monday with highs in the lower to mid 90s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 91 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 76 93 75 92 / 10 20 0 10 GIF 73 96 72 97 / 10 30 0 10 SRQ 76 91 75 92 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 70 92 69 94 / 0 10 0 10 SPG 80 89 79 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ RDavis