150
FXUS62 KTBW 132325
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
725 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Most of the activity has dissipated with exception of a line of
storms near LAL. This trend should continue through the evening
and VFR ceilings/visibilities are expected until about 07Z when
chances for showers increase. After the mid morning, daytime
heating combined with ample moisture should allow thunderstorms
to begin to develop, especially across SWFL. Convection is
anticipated to be on and off through the afternoon and early
evening hours. However, there guidance tries to keep it over
southern terminals into the night. MVFR/IFR conditions along with
erratic and gusty winds are possible near storms. West to
southwest winds prevail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A shortwave trough axis continues to propagate westward as tropical
moisture is pulled northward across the FL peninsula. This is in
contrast to drier air being pulled southward over the N FL
peninsula. Heavy rainfall continues across SWFL in response as
isolated to scattered diurnal convection starts to develop over
Central and N Florida.

The expectation is for heavy rainfall over SWFL to wind down for at
least a period here in the next hour or two. The atmosphere will
then need some time to recover before additional rainfall redevelops
again overnight and into tomorrow. Another round of heavy rainfall
is possible over a more confined section of SWFL. Considering how
much rain has already fallen in this same area, this necessitated
the extension of the Flood Watch through tomorrow in Charlotte and
Lee Counties. However, lower totals, sunshine, and opportunities for
water to drain have been ample across Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, and
DeSoto counties. Thus, the current Flood Watch through this evening
looks to be good at this time. Trends will be monitored over the
next few hours.

Over the next couple days, a transition will take place as the
trough axis is replaced by an upper-level ridge. As this happens,
winds will shift from a WSW to eventually an ESE pattern, with more
typical diurnal convection settling in for at least a few days. Some
drier air could even make this convection more isolated in nature,
at least initially. Overall, though, more typical summertime
conditions return and last into next week.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  79  90 /  40  50  30  60
FMY  76  89  77  89 /  60  70  60  80
GIF  75  94  76  93 /  50  70  40  60
SRQ  76  92  77  91 /  30  40  50  70
BKV  71  95  73  95 /  40  40  30  60
SPG  81  92  82  91 /  30  40  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt