470
FXUS62 KTBW 181900
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Overall forecast is unchanged for the next several days. The upper
level low over the southeast U.S. will open up and lift northeast
over the next day or so with troughing remaining along the U.S.
east coast into the weekend with ridging building over the region
early next week. At the surface the weak pressure pattern will
persist into Thursday then a weak front will move south through
the region late Thursday into Friday with high pressure building
in behind it setting up an increasing northeast to east flow
through the weekend and into early next week.

For tonight into Thursday, we will continue to see a southwest to
west flow combined with limited moisture. Isolated to scattered
convection will continue into early this evening, then wind down
later this evening. However, there could be enough lift with the
boundary moving south later tonight to allow a few showers and
possibly a thunderstorm to develop near the coast, then the
chances shift south during the day with most of the convection
over the interior and southwest Florida during the afternoon. On
Friday, the wind shift to northeast will bring some drier air into
the area, but still should be enough for isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening convection, with best chances remaining over
the interior and southwest Florida. Over the weekend and into
early next week we will continue to see enough moisture for
isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms in the northeast to east flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early
evening at LAL and across the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD,
FMY and RSW, which could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions.
Southwest to west winds at 5 to 10 knots will become light and
variable once again during this evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The rather light flow will continue into tonight then winds will
shift to northwest to north as a weak front moves across the
waters during Thursday. Friday through the weekend and into early
next week high pressure will build in from the north shifting the
flow to northeast to east at around 10 knots with evening surges
bumping winds up to around 15 knots, possibly exercise caution
levels early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible through the period. No
headlines are expected through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Enough moisture will remain across the region for the next few days
to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening. Relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels with no fire weather hazards expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  75  90 /  20  20  10  20
FMY  77  90  75  91 /  30  50  20  50
GIF  74  92  74  93 /  20  40  10  30
SRQ  76  91  75  91 /  30  20  20  20
BKV  72  91  71  91 /  20  20  10  20
SPG  80  91  79  91 /  20  20  10  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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