Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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637 FXUS62 KTBW 270825 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 425 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure is ridging across the FL Straits with a trough to the north of the state, keeping a more moderate SW flow in place across the area for today and Friday. A few showers are in place already across the northern coastal waters this morning, and the pattern of morning coastal convection shifting inland through the afternoon and early evening will continue. Highs in the lower to mid 90s will continue with lows in the mid to upper 70s, with some around 80s along the coast. The ridge axis starts to lift north over the weekend as the trough to the north gradually washes out, then meanders across the area for next week. This will keep light winds with the diurnal sea breeze dominating the flow each day. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each day. Highs remain in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the mid to upper 70s through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A little stronger WSW flow expected today. Scattered showers/storms will be possible near the coast in the pre-sunrise hours and have VCTS beginning at 10Z at most coastal Terminals. Convection gradually shifts inland through the afternoon, with coastal sites clearing around 19Z north and 23Z south, and for LAL being generally 15-00Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but MVFR to IFR conditions possible in storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 425 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure ridge axis remains south of the state through the end of the week, then starts to gradually lift north to across the area through the weekend and into next week. This will shift winds from the SW to more of a light S/SE flow with the sea breezing dominating each day. This will also adjust the timing of storms, with overnight and morning activity through the end of the week, then transition to more of an evening timing as storms push offshore. No headlines are expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 425 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day with humidity values remaining well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 80 91 80 / 50 40 60 30 FMY 91 78 93 78 / 40 20 60 20 GIF 93 76 94 76 / 60 30 70 20 SRQ 91 79 92 78 / 50 30 50 30 BKV 91 75 93 75 / 50 50 70 20 SPG 89 81 90 81 / 50 40 60 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby