657
FXUS62 KTBW 212335
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
735 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
High pressure surface and aloft remains over the region creating
strong large scale subsidence across the forecast area. Although
significant dry air aloft is present with PCPW values around 1
inch, collision of the west/east coast sea breeze boundaries is
generating a few showers across the nature coast and interior this
evening. Shower activity will dissipate by midnight with skies
becoming mostly clear across the region with overnight lows
generally in the upper 60s north, to around 70 and the lower 70s
central and south. Similar conditions expected on Wednesday,
except a few degrees warmer as the U/L ridge builds a bit over the
Florida peninsula.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The pattern aloft this afternoon features high pressure centered
over Mexico and and troughing to our east, with flow over the region
out of the north-northeast. At the surface, high pressure over the
mid-Atlantic region ridges down across Florida. For the rest of the
day, expect a few showers and storms to continue over the interior,
but hot and dry conditions will prevail otherwise. The rest of the
week looks to be rather uneventful as ridging builds over the region
aloft and increasing subsidence leads to lower rain chances. Only
southwest Florida and the interior could see a shower or too, but
rainfall amounts are forecast to be on the low side. Conditions
otherwise will remain hot, with high temperatures topping out in
the mid to upper 90s.

The upper ridge holds through the weekend and even into next week,
though it does flatten some as a shortwave moves by to the north.
Surface high pressure shifts eastward some, with a low-level
southerly flow leading to an increase in moisture and slightly
higher rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
VFR conditions expected tonight and Wednesday. Mostly clear skies
overnight, and SCT040-050 SCT250 developing Wednesday afternoon.
Terminals closer to the coast...PIE/SRQ...less likely to see CU
development with mainly SCT250.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast to east winds today become east and then southeast through
the week, with a turn onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. No
headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  93  75  93 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  73  94  73  94 /  10  30  10  20
GIF  71  93  71  95 /  10  10   0  10
SRQ  73  93  73  93 /   0  10   0  10
BKV  68  95  68  95 /  10  10   0  10
SPG  78  93  78  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme