Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
122 FXUS62 KTBW 100709 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 309 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 U/L pattern will begin with the west coast rex block in the process of breaking down, and quasi-zonal southern stream flow undercutting a west coast cut-off low which will extend across the southern tier of the U.S. This then merges with the northern stream along the eastern seaboard. A northern stream disturbance will dig over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley`s today, and will move rapidly to the mid-Atlantic coast. This will enhance an area of showers and thunderstorms over the southeast U.S. along a frontal boundary, which will sink gradually south through the day. Shower/thunderstorm activity will approach the northern forecast area during the mid/late afternoon hours. The U/L support will be in the process of pulling away from the region as the storms approach the northern forecast area, however a pocket of CAA aloft will advect over the northern/central forecast area during the day increasing convective instability, so can`t rule out an isolated strong thunderstorm with potential for damaging wind gusts and hail. SPC has the northern nature coast highlighted in a slight risk for severe storms today...with a marginal risk extending south to about the I-4 corridor. Any showers/thunderstorms should be on a weakening/dissipating trend as they sink south toward the Tampa area and the remainder of the central and southern forecast area during the evening and overnight hours. Guidance is not overly impressive with regards to areal coverage of shower/thunderstorm activity today, with best chance across Levy county. The frontal boundary will be located across south central Florida on Saturday with a continued chance of thunderstorms over southwest Florida and the southern interior. High pressure will build over the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday with much drier advecting across the region. Dew points in many areas will drop into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday. The drier air will be short lived as the next storm system develops over the mid Mississippi Valley and boundary layer winds across the Florida peninsula veer southeast allowing L/L moisture to rapidly recover. The next frontal boundary will push approach the northern nature coast early Tuesday with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms...with the boundary sinking south across the central forecast area during the day, and the area of showers/thunderstorms sinking south along with it. As is typically the case with systems in mid May, the U/L support will be pulling away from the region as the boundary sinks south...and areal coverage/strength of storms will be on a waning trend during the evening and overnight hours Tuesday night. The boundary is expected to stall across the north central/central Florida peninsula on Wednesday as it becomes parallel to the U/L flow. Another weak U/L disturbance riding through the southern stream flow will ride over the boundary on Wednesday which should aid in generating scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas of MVFR CIGs 012-020 vcnty most terminals this morning, and may impact terminals intermittently for several hours. VFR conditions expected at all terminals this afternoon with SCT035-040 SCT250 developing. && .MARINE... Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Slight increase in the gradient today may create LCL SCEC conditions this afternoon and tonight. A frontal boundary will create a chance of showers/thunderstorms over the northern and possibly central waters this afternoon and evening. High pressure will build over the waters on Saturday with winds subsiding and veering northwest. Winds are expected to remain less than 15 knots with seas 2 feet or less Sunday and Monday. A frontal boundary will approach the northern waters on Tuesday with SCEC conditions possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Hot temperatures over the interior will continue to create minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the 30 to 35 percent range today and Saturday. Much drier air advecting across the region on Sunday will allow minimum relative humidity values to drop below 35 percent across much of the forecast area away from the coast...with the lowest RH values over the interior in the range of 25 to 30 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 77 89 71 / 10 30 10 0 FMY 91 77 90 71 / 0 10 30 0 GIF 94 75 93 67 / 10 20 10 0 SRQ 88 76 89 69 / 10 30 10 0 BKV 91 70 90 61 / 20 30 10 0 SPG 87 79 87 74 / 10 30 10 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...RDavis UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...RDavis