976
FXUS64 KTSA 271900
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
200 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Temperatures are expected to be held up tonight with a
south-southeast wind forecast to persist through the night.
This will result in low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid
70s overnight. There will be a low potential for showers/storms
near the Kansas/Oklahoma border tonight as thunderstorms
that develop over western Kansas later this afternoon spread east
before dissipating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Heat will be the main story on Friday with high temperatures forecast
to be in the mid 90s to around 103. With dew points on the rise Friday,
heat index values will be in the 105 to 114 degree range across much
of eastern Oklahoma and west-central with heat headlines in place.
Yesterday`s rainfall will result in a swath of higher dew points across
eastern Oklahoma. With this in mind, an Excessive Heat Warning will be issued
for much of northeast Oklahoma where heat index values are most likely to be
in the 110 to 114 degree range Friday afternoon.

Heat headlines will be likely again on Saturday with high temperatures again in
the mid 90s to around 100. However, shower/storm chances will be on the
increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a cold front edges into the
area from the north. The chances of showers/storms continue on Sunday as the
convectively enhanced frontal boundary moves into southern portions of the area.
Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be somewhat cooler with heat headlines
unlikely.

The dangerous heat is likely to return early next week as the upper level ridge
attempts to build back over the area. Low shower/storm chances return mid-week
with some models suggesting a weakness in the upper level ridge allowing a
cold front to approach from the north.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. There
remains a small chance that a weakening cluster of thunderstorms
could move across southern Kansas and potentially into parts of
far northeast OK late tonight and early Friday morning, but
probability of significant impacts at any site are 20% or less.
South winds will increase mid-morning Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  98  81  99 /  10  10  10  20
FSM   71  97  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   74  96  78  97 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   73  98  77  97 /  20  20  20  30
FYV   69  94  75  97 /   0  10   0  20
BYV   68  95  75  97 /   0  10  10  30
MKO   73  95  78  97 /   0  10   0  20
MIO   72  94  77  95 /  10  10  20  40
F10   73  96  77  96 /  10  10   0  20
HHW   71  93  77  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-058-
     063-068-072>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for
     OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070-071.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...14