Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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771 FXUS64 KTSA 251537 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1037 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1033 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Small scale wave across south central KS has helped maintain an area of weak convection through the morning though a steady decrease in coverage has occurred with eastward advance. This wave will make slow progress eastward and may aid isolated convection later today across NE OK and possibly far NW AR, but overall coverage is expected to remain very low. Dewpoint trends are running several degrees higher than forecast and the update will address these trends. This will impact heat index forecasts and should these higher values remain place into the afternoon then portions of the heat advisory may need to be upgraded. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Predominantly "chance" PoPs persist for far E OK/ NW AR Wednesday morning and afternoon to account for any ongoing convection & redevelopment along the front during the day. Another wave is forecast to move across C Plains Wednesday night into Thursday with additional precip chances north and west of our area. Currently do not expect this activity to impact our CWA, but this will need to be watched as additional short term guidance becomes available for the coming forecasts. Otherwise, low PoPs return this weekend as another frontal boundary attempts to influence the region. Positive height anomalies expand back into our area next week. Regarding the heat... opted to issue another Heat Advisory on Wednesday for parts of E OK and W-Central AR as heat indices are again forecast to climb between 105-110 degrees. Convection may complicate things, especially across AR counties, but with heat indices forecast to approach warning criteria if left undisturbed in the pre-frontal environment, felt an advisory was appropriate. Thursday will feature slightly lower heat index values with drier (and slightly cooler) air behind the front. However the intense heat returns Friday into the weekend with increasing potential for additional heat headlines. Above average temps are expected into next week with highs in the 90s/ lower 100s and lows mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Sfc wind gusts after 15z with 20-25 kts expected at times for all sites except KFSM and KBVO. Storm chances will increase mainly after 06z for parts of NE OK and NW AR, however coverage appears too low to include a mention with this issuance. Otherwise, VFR TAF elements to prevail at all sites through the valid period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 78 99 74 / 10 30 20 0 FSM 99 78 97 76 / 10 20 50 10 MLC 97 78 97 74 / 0 20 30 10 BVO 99 73 96 69 / 20 30 10 0 FYV 96 72 93 69 / 10 20 50 0 BYV 96 71 91 68 / 20 30 60 0 MKO 96 77 96 73 / 10 20 30 10 MIO 96 73 93 69 / 20 40 30 0 F10 96 76 97 72 / 10 20 20 10 HHW 95 76 96 75 / 10 20 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>057- 059>062-064>068-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 019-020-029. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...23