Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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679 FXUS64 KTSA 211540 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1040 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1040 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Deep layer ridging continues to spread in from the east today. In turn, deep layer moisture will become less notable over the area this afternoon with PWAT values nearly half of what we have seen for most of the week. This will push any isolated shower chances west of the region within the deeper moisture axis. More sunshine today will allow temperatures to rise a few degrees higher than yesterday as a notable warmup begins heading into the weekend. Current forecast remains in good shape at this time. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Upper ridge to become more centered over the southern plains through the weekend, with slightly warmer temperatures expected Upper flow to improve some for the latter half of the weekend, which may result in a some shower and storms near the KS/OK and NW AR/SW MO Sunday morning. With low coverage expected, will leave mentionable PoPs out at this time. Upper ridge early next week will build across the SW CONUS, resulting in a NW flow pattern across the E OK and NW AR. `Best` chances for showers and storms come Tuesday night and Wednesday as a S-SE moving upper wave brings a frontal boundary into the area. Will include low PoPs in at the end of the forecast cycle as another upper wave moves across the central plains late Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures will be on the increase in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe- but areas that see a frontal passage around mid week will likely see slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the forecast period. Cigs may briefly fall to MVFR this morning, but did not include in TAFs due to expectation for limited areal and temporal coverage. Additionally, cannot rule out an isolated shower or two this morning/ afternoon, but any impacts should remain minimal and short-lived. Southerly sfc winds increase today, but generally remain below 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 93 74 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 94 72 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 91 71 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 92 71 95 75 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 91 69 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 91 69 93 74 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 91 71 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 91 71 93 75 / 0 0 0 10 F10 90 70 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 89 71 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...43