Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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862 FXUS64 KTSA 301910 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Scattered storms ongoing across NW AR into SE OK will continue into mid evening with a gradual decrease in coverage after sunset. A brief strong storm is possible with damaging downburst winds the primary concern. Wind fields are not as favorable for organized storms as this time yesterday so any severe threat should remain very isolated. Additionally, areas away from thunderstorm influences will continue with dangerous heat index values through sunset. The frontal boundary that generally lies along Interstate 40 will continue to gradually lose definition while lifting northward and becoming oriented more north south with time. Isolated storms may continue in vicinity of this feature into the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Hot and humid conditions overspread the entire forecast area tomorrow and generally through late week. The aforementioned decaying frontal zone may act to focus a corridor of higher dewpoints through the day Monday and possibly allow for isolated to scattered storms. Otherwise, the primary weather impact will be dangerous heat index and wet bulb globe temps. A heat advisory has been issued and portions of the area may need to be upgraded into warning criteria pending forecast dewpoint trends. Upper ridge strengthens over the region Tuesday into Wednesday and chances for daily thunderstorms will trend down. Temperatures will be trending upward and likely combine with persistent high dewpoints to yield a continuation of dangerous heat levels. Expect heat headlines to extend for several days. Upper ridging begins to weaken by late week and an initial cold front may approach NE OK by late Wednesday though likely stalls just north of the region. This corridor may be near enough to allow a low chance of storms into NE OK. Otherwise the pattern will begin to feature a building ridge aloft through the western CONUS and downstream troughing aids a stronger cold frontal push into the southern Plains Friday into the weekend. Most of the guidance remains persistent with the cold front making it through the entire forecast area bringing a chance of showers and storms along with cooler temps by next weekend. However, there does remain a subset of solutions with a lesser aggressive frontal push and summertime cold fronts can often leave you disappointed, so uncertainty remains in the latter part of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop near a cold front sagging south across northwest AR into southeast OK through the afternoon. Outside of direct thunderstorm impacts, VFR conditions will prevail, with brief MVFR conditions possible within thunderstorms. Storms should dissipate this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 97 80 99 / 20 20 10 0 FSM 77 94 74 98 / 20 20 10 0 MLC 75 96 77 97 / 20 20 10 0 BVO 72 96 77 99 / 20 20 10 0 FYV 71 92 70 95 / 20 20 10 0 BYV 69 90 69 96 / 20 20 10 0 MKO 75 94 75 96 / 20 20 10 0 MIO 71 93 75 96 / 20 20 10 0 F10 74 96 77 96 / 20 10 10 0 HHW 75 94 75 95 / 20 20 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049- 053-072>076. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>057- 059>062-064>067-070>076. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ065-066-070-071. AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...14