599
FXUS64 KTSA 301717
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Will go ahead and upgrade a portion of the heat advisory,
generally south of I-40 in eastern OK and through the Arkansas
River Valley. Currently the synoptic cold front is a bit south of
I-44, with a subtle outflow boundary in the vicinity of I-40. To
the south of this, dew points remain in the 75-80 range and a
number of reporting stations were already seeing heat index values
from 100-108. Given at least a few more hours of strong
insolation as cirrus shield from morning convection remain well
north, seems likely that a corridor of HI in the 110-113 range
should develop in this area for at least a couple of hours.
Eventually still expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
provide some relief, albeit rather localized. Updated products
will be issued soon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

As surface high pressure advances eastward towards the Great
Lakes region on Monday, Sunday`s frontal boundary will lift back
northward as a warm front, with modest to strong WAA pushing into
the forecast area by Monday afternoon behind it. There could be a
few diurnally-driven isolated showers and storms that form Monday
afternoon as a result. Convection should stay very spotty and
short-lived as mid-level ridging dominates overhead. Otherwise,
oppressive heat is anticipated to return and intensify through the
first half of the week next week. Additional heat headlines will
likely be needed, especially Monday-Thursday.

Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to shift over the Southeast
CONUS by Wednesday as an upper-level trough works its way over
the Northern Plains. As a result, another weak surface frontal
boundary will approach the forecast area from the north, helping
to increase rain chances across northeast OK and northwest AR
during the daytime. Still lots of uncertainty with the evolution
of the front, with consensus in models currently suggesting it
stalls just north of the area Wednesday and Thursday, then have it
finally pushing through the region on Friday. The front is
expected to bring in a chance of showers and thunderstorms
(20-40%) late Thursday night through Friday night as it pushes
into the area. Guidance also suggests the front brings a much
needed cool down by next weekend, dropping temps closer to
seasonal average.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop near
a cold front sagging south across northwest AR into southeast OK
through the afternoon. Outside of direct thunderstorm impacts,
VFR conditions will prevail, with brief MVFR conditions possible
within thunderstorms. Storms should dissipate this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  77  97  80 /  20  10  10   0
FSM   95  77  94  74 /  50  20  10   0
MLC   95  75  96  77 /  30  30  10   0
BVO   86  72  96  77 /  30  20  10   0
FYV   91  71  92  70 /  40  10  10   0
BYV   88  69  90  69 /  40  10  10   0
MKO   92  75  94  75 /  30  20  10   0
MIO   86  71  93  75 /  20  20  20   0
F10   91  74  96  77 /  30  20  10   0
HHW   97  75  94  75 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053-072>076.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ065-066-070-071.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14