Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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922 FXUS64 KTSA 282339 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 639 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Dangerous heat levels will continue into the early evening hours. Winds will be sustained overnight and, with continued influx of high dewpoints, warm overnight lows will be realized which will provide little to no relief from the ongoing heat stress. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Corridor of elevated convection is likely to be ongoing across portions of NE OK / far NW AR tomorrow morning with skies then clearing into the afternoon. Hot and humid conditions will then prevail area wide. Recent rainfall footprint along with any moisture pooling along slow moving boundary into NE OK late in the day will both act to focus persistent high dewpoints through much of E OK and result in dangerous afternoon heat index values. Majority of guidance favors isolated to scattered storms developing by late afternoon along the boundary which is likely to be in or near NE OK and possibly far NW AR. Ample instability and steep low level lapse rates will support locally damaging wind potential with the strongest storms. The boundary should be pushed more southward by the evening / overnight storms with some heat relief possible on Sunday. Guidance varies considerably on extent of additional precip along and north of the boundary into the day Sunday. Forecast will remain conservative on precip coverage and also side toward the warmer temp scenario for Sunday afternoon. Upper ridge will become more centered over the local forecast area Monday into Tuesday with decreasing rain chances and increasing temperatues. A return of heat headlines are likely for early next week. By mid to late next week there is a chance a weak cold front will move near or into the region and bring the next chance of precip and possibly slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Gusty winds for the first few hours of the TAF should diminish some thereafter. A low chance for showers/thunderstorms late tonight remains for BVO, and the going VCSH mention will be maintained for that potential. A stronger signal for thunderstorms near BVO exists around 30/00Z, with the best chance occurring just after the end of the current TAF period. As such, no mention will be included in the current TAF set. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 82 99 75 94 / 10 20 40 30 FSM 79 99 79 97 / 0 10 20 50 MLC 78 98 77 96 / 0 0 10 30 BVO 79 98 70 91 / 20 20 40 30 FYV 76 98 72 92 / 0 20 30 50 BYV 77 98 72 90 / 10 20 30 50 MKO 79 98 75 93 / 0 20 20 30 MIO 79 95 72 88 / 20 20 40 40 F10 79 97 74 93 / 0 10 20 30 HHW 77 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053-058- 063-069. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-072- 074>076. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>068-070>076. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049- 053>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-010- 011. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...22