096
FXUS64 KTSA 290236
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
936 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Thunderstorms were ongoing across Eastern Kansas in response to a
surface boundary lifting northwestward and interacting with the
frontal boundary slowly moving southward. Through the evening
hours these storms are forecast to remain north of Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. However...there is potential that
an outflow boundary from the convection could push southward into
the CWA late tonight and create a focus for a few storms to
develop in Northeast Oklahoma. At this time the greater potential
for precip looks to be for locations near the Oklahoma Kansas
border...and will continue with current PoP configuration for
tonight. Instability should weaken this evening and set up closer
to the frontal boundary stretched across Kansas overnight. In
response...not anticipating severe weather tonight.

South of the frontal boundary...southerly low level flow combined
with upper 60s/70+ deg dewpoints and scattered cloud cover over
the CWA should aid in low temps again tonight to be
near/slightly warmer compared to this morning. Current forecast
lows in the mid 70s to around 80 deg remain on track. Thus...for
the evening update have added minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint
trends...while the rest of the forecast looks to be in good shape
at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Corridor of elevated convection is likely to be ongoing across
portions of NE OK / far NW AR tomorrow morning with skies then
clearing into the afternoon. Hot and humid conditions will then
prevail area wide. Recent rainfall footprint along with any
moisture pooling along slow moving boundary into NE OK late in the
day will both act to focus persistent high dewpoints through much
of E OK and result in dangerous afternoon heat index values.
Majority of guidance favors isolated to scattered storms
developing by late afternoon along the boundary which is likely to
be in or near NE OK and possibly far NW AR. Ample instability and
steep low level lapse rates will support locally damaging wind
potential with the strongest storms.

The boundary should be pushed more southward by the evening /
overnight storms with some heat relief possible on Sunday.
Guidance varies considerably on extent of additional precip along
and north of the boundary into the day Sunday. Forecast will
remain conservative on precip coverage and also side toward the
warmer temp scenario for Sunday afternoon.

Upper ridge will become more centered over the local forecast area
Monday into Tuesday with decreasing rain chances and increasing
temperatues. A return of heat headlines are likely for early next
week. By mid to late next week there is a chance a weak cold front
will move near or into the region and bring the next chance of
precip and possibly slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Gusty winds for
the first few hours of the TAF should diminish some thereafter.
A low chance for showers/thunderstorms late tonight remains for
BVO, and the going VCSH mention will be maintained for that
potential. A stronger signal for thunderstorms near BVO exists
around 30/00Z, with the best chance occurring just after the end
of the current TAF period. As such, no mention will be included in
the current TAF set.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  99  75  94 /  10  20  40  30
FSM   79  99  79  97 /   0  10  20  50
MLC   78  98  77  96 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   79  98  70  91 /  20  20  40  30
FYV   76  98  72  92 /   0  20  30  50
BYV   77  98  72  90 /  10  20  30  50
MKO   79  98  75  93 /   0  20  20  30
MIO   79  95  72  88 /  20  20  40  40
F10   79  97  74  93 /   0  10  20  30
HHW   77  95  77  96 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053-058-
     063-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     OKZ054>057-059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22