Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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349 FXUS64 KTSA 240530 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 911 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Heat Index values continue to slowly fall, though a few still are right around the century mark at 9 PM. Today`s advisory has expired accordingly. Have also removed any mention of thunderstorms for this evening. More dangerously hot and humid weather Monday with headlines covering all of eastern OK and western AR. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The heat intensifies on Monday, with afternoon heat indices expected to climb into the 105 to 111 degree range. The lower Ark River valley of west-central Arkansas, including FSM, could see heat warning criteria. Therefore, have issued an Excessive Heat Watch there, and Heat Advisories elsewhere. After what looks like another day of heat headlines Tuesday, the mid-level ridge will shift far enough west, at least briefly, to allow for increased storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. If an MCS were to organize and plow south across the area, it would provide some relief from the heat, with the caveat that it could bring some spotty damaging wind also. After storm chances on Wednesday with a weak front, the ridge aloft will rebuild east back overhead for the latter part of the week. Storm chances will return by the weekend as another boundary approaches from the north in a less amplified upper flow pattern across the CONUS. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period for all sites. Southerly sfc winds increase to near 10-15 kts during the late morning and afternoon hours. Otherwise, scattered mid/ high clouds are forecast with a very low chance (<10%) of an isolated shower during the afternoon across E-Central OK & W-Central AR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 101 81 99 78 / 0 0 10 30 FSM 100 78 99 77 / 10 0 10 20 MLC 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 20 BVO 101 75 99 74 / 0 0 10 40 FYV 98 72 96 73 / 0 0 10 30 BYV 99 74 96 72 / 10 0 10 40 MKO 98 77 97 77 / 0 0 10 30 MIO 99 76 96 73 / 0 0 10 40 F10 97 76 97 76 / 0 0 10 20 HHW 96 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...43