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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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570 FXUS64 KTSA 180535 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 An area of showers and thunderstorms moved north into parts of western Arkansas earlier this evening but have since dissipated. Dry weather will prevail for the rest of the night with some increase in low cloudiness towards morning. No forecast update is planned at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Remnants of tropical system, currently developing in the Bay of Campeche, is expected to shift west over Mexico/south Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. Although a few isolated storms will again be possible across far SE OK/NW AR Tuesday afternoon, most locations will not receive any appreciable rainfall. With the increase in cloud cover, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler through the middle part of the week and have undercut NBM a few degrees, closer to MOS guidance. Upper ridge begins to build back into the southern Plains Thursday into Friday with hot/humid conditions returning to much of the region. Heat indices are forecast to climb back into the 100-103 degree range Saturday afternoon. Ridge does however begin to break down/shift west over the weekend, potentially allowing a weak cold front to move into the area Saturday night into Sunday with at least scattered showers/thunderstorms possible. Soil conditions continue to dry out, especially across northeast Oklahoma, where very little rainfall has occurred over the past two weeks. Light west/northwest flow aloft will hopefully persist into the early part of next week with a least low rain chances continuing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Mostly clear conditions with breezy south winds are expected for most areas for the remainder of tonight. One area of low clouds has developed near KFYV, and could potentially persist and/or expand into nearby terminals but confidence in this outcome is low. However, low clouds will likely develop for the eastern OK terminals Tuesday morning, with occasionally broken CIGs down to 3 kft or so. These clouds will thin and break up during the afternoon. Most areas will be dry, but there is a 10-20% chance of a shower during the afternoon hours for the northwest AR terminals. Winds will remain breezy and out of the south through the day Tuesday with gusts of 20-30 kts possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 73 87 71 / 0 0 10 0 FSM 90 73 87 73 / 20 0 10 0 MLC 87 71 85 70 / 10 0 10 10 BVO 90 71 88 68 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 87 69 85 68 / 20 0 10 0 BYV 87 69 84 68 / 20 0 10 0 MKO 88 72 85 72 / 10 0 10 0 MIO 88 71 87 70 / 0 0 10 0 F10 87 71 85 70 / 0 0 10 10 HHW 87 71 82 71 / 10 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...06