Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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789 FXUS64 KTSA 280255 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 955 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 As of mid evening a cluster of storms were located over far Southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles. This activity was being aided by an increasing low level jet and an eastward moving outflow boundary...even though instability from max heating had begun to weaken. Over the next several hours...as these storms push farther eastward toward Northeast Oklahoma...they should begin to run out ahead of the remaining instability axis and weaken. As the storms weaken...they should begin to move more with the mean mid-level flow...lifting more northeast into Central/Eastern Kansas. Thus...based on latest short-term guidance and the mentioned above will hold onto slight chance PoPs for locations near the Oklahoma Kansas border...west of Highway 75 after 06z tonight. Severe weather is not anticipated. Across the rest of the CWA tonight...cloud cover associated with the storm cluster will spread over much of the region. These clouds along with southerly low level flow returning will help to keep low temps tonight a little warmer compared to last night. Thus...current forecast lows in the upper 60s and 70s continue to look reasonable. For the evening update...have added minor tweaks to the PoP configuration and to the hourly temp/dewpoint trends overnight. The rest of the forecast seems to be handling well at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Heat will be the main story on Friday with high temperatures forecast to be in the mid 90s to around 103. With dew points on the rise Friday, heat index values will be in the 105 to 114 degree range across much of eastern Oklahoma and west-central with heat headlines in place. Yesterday`s rainfall will result in a swath of higher dew points across eastern Oklahoma. With this in mind, an Excessive Heat Warning will be issued for much of northeast Oklahoma where heat index values are most likely to be in the 110 to 114 degree range Friday afternoon. Heat headlines will be likely again on Saturday with high temperatures again in the mid 90s to around 100. However, shower/storm chances will be on the increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a cold front edges into the area from the north. The chances of showers/storms continue on Sunday as the convectively enhanced frontal boundary moves into southern portions of the area. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be somewhat cooler with heat headlines unlikely. The dangerous heat is likely to return early next week as the upper level ridge attempts to build back over the area. Low shower/storm chances return mid-week with some models suggesting a weakness in the upper level ridge allowing a cold front to approach from the north. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with some increase in mid cloud expected overnight. A very low chance of shower/thunderstorm impacts will exist late tonight and into tomorrow morning at BVO, but uncertainty will preclude its inclusion in the TAF for now. Southerly winds will become gusty mid to late morning tomorrow at the NE OK and far NW AR sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 98 81 99 / 10 10 10 20 FSM 71 97 78 99 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 74 96 78 97 / 0 10 0 10 BVO 73 98 77 97 / 20 20 20 30 FYV 69 94 75 97 / 0 10 0 20 BYV 68 95 75 97 / 0 10 10 30 MKO 73 95 78 97 / 0 10 0 20 MIO 72 94 77 95 / 10 10 20 40 F10 73 96 77 96 / 10 10 0 20 HHW 71 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-058- 063-068-072>076. Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070-071. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...22