146
FXUS64 KTSA 250220
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
920 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Heat headlines for today have been allowed to expire as Heat Index
values continue to slowly fall this evening, with most spots well
below 100 degrees. Otherwise generally clear conditions overnight
with very warm lows in the 70s to lower 80s. Forecast appears to
be trending well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Have expanded the heat advisory to include the entire CWA on
Tuesday with heat index values expected to be in the 105 to 110
degree range during the afternoon.

The chances of showers/storms ramp up Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the upper level ridge retrogrades enough to the
west to allow a brief window of northwesterly flow aloft. A mid
level shortwave embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft will
aid in thunderstorm development during this time as will an associated
weak surface boundary. A few of these storms could be strong to
severe with damaging winds and large hail the concern.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
forecast period as the upper level ridge builds back over the
area. Low chances of showers/storms are still possible across
northern portions of the area over the weekend as a weak frontal
boundary attempts to push in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Scattered mid/high clouds, in association with weak upper disturbance,
will continue shifting southeast this evening/overnight. Light winds
tonight will become gusty from the south by midday Tuesday. VFR conditions
are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 100  76  97 /   0  10  30  20
FSM   78 100  77  97 /  10  10  20  40
MLC   77  98  75  97 /   0  10  20  20
BVO   77 100  72  96 /   0  10  40  10
FYV   75  97  72  93 /  10  10  20  50
BYV   75  97  72  89 /  10  20  30  60
MKO   78  97  75  94 /   0  10  20  30
MIO   76  97  72  91 /   0  10  40  30
F10   76  98  74  95 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   76  96  77  95 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12