Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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448 FXUS64 KTSA 242350 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 650 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon/early evening across north-central Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak surface boundary and associated low pressure system. This activity is forecast to spread into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the evening hours as a mid-level shortwave currently over southwest Kansas swoops through the area. There is the potential that a few of the storms could be strong to severe this evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma, mainly to the south of Highway 412 and west of Highway 75. Large hail to the size of golf balls is the main concern. Overall, the shower and storm activity is expected to move out of the area late tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Wednesday into Thursday are expected to remain mostly dry as a cutoff upper level takes shape over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and storm chances increase Thursday night into Friday as moisture associated with Helene is incorporated into the cutoff low as it wobbles east of the area. The highest probabilities of shower/storms are forecast across western Arkansas as are the highest rainfall amounts. The upper level low will finally begin to move off to the northeast over the weekend with dry weather forecast for much of the area. Temperatures look to be near normal for this time of year during this time-frame. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread south and east this evening across E OK and NW AR with additional development possible over the next several hours. This may lead to at least brief ceiling & vsby reductions, with highest potential for flight impacts expected for MLC. Most precip should move south of TAF sites by 07z with clearing conditions behind this activity. This may allow for development of fog late tonight/ tomorrow morning (low to medium chance). At this time, MLC and FSM appear to be most favored for vsby reductions and have included TEMPO groups here. Other sites in E OK & NW AR may also experience at least brief vsby reductions, but confidence was not high enough to include mention with this forecast issuance. Aside from any lingering fog tomorrow morning, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 57 81 54 80 / 70 0 0 0 FSM 61 82 59 82 / 70 0 0 10 MLC 59 81 56 81 / 90 0 0 0 BVO 52 81 51 82 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 54 79 51 78 / 50 0 0 20 BYV 54 78 51 77 / 30 0 0 20 MKO 57 79 55 79 / 70 0 0 10 MIO 54 79 50 78 / 20 0 0 10 F10 57 80 53 79 / 80 0 0 0 HHW 62 81 56 82 / 80 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...43