Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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748 FXUS64 KTSA 210114 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 814 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 809 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Some earlier, isolated convection was noted over the terrain areas of western AR and southeast OK, but has since dissipated. An outflow boundary associated with a cluster of storms moving across southern KS may eventually flirt with areas along the border resulting in continued non-zero chance of a shower there overnight. Otherwise expectation is for the upper ridge to hold firm overnight and keep any notable activity well to the north. Thus the current forecast of a slight chance along OK/KS border looks reasonable, with very warm overnight lows for the time of year. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Latest surface analysis from the region shows a weak/diffused frontal boundary hovering just north of the KS/OK border. Daytime heating helped initiate elevated convection earlier this morning in far northeast OK, near the KS border, which dropped anywhere from a few hundredths to a couple of tenths of an inch of rain. Additional convection development remains possible (10-20%) across the far northern tier of the forecast area, including portions of northwest AR, late this afternoon into early this evening as the weak frontal boundary continues to lift northward. However, the lingering cloud cover and convection may inhibit this development. Nevertheless, if storms are able to develop, coverage and intensity of the storms should be considerably lower than what occurred yesterday afternoon/evening. Forecast temperatures thus far today havent really materialized north of the I-40 corridor due to the aforementioned showers/storms from earlier as well as thick mid/upper level cloud cover that has stuck around. Was confident enough to drop the Heat Advisory from Pawnee, Osage, Washington, Nowata, and Craig counties in OK as heat indices should remain just at or below advisory criteria (<105F) through the rest of the afternoon. Have maintained the rest of the Heat Advisory through 8 PM this evening. For this evening and overnight tonight, plan for another unseasonably warm/sultry night with overnight lows ranging from the mid-upper 70s for most locations; temperatures will be about 15 degrees above average for late September. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Potent mid/upper-level ridging over the Plains will hold strong through Saturday before weakening and shifting southward on Sunday as an upper-level trough ejects off the Rockies. Although temperatures are forecast to soar into the mid-upper 90s to near 100F in spots again on Saturday afternoon, dewpoint temperatures are not expected to be quite as high. These lower dewpoints should keep heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria for the most part, though criteria might be reached for a couple of hours for some locations (Tulsa metro, AR River Valley). Will forgo issuing another Heat Advisory for now, but conditions and guidance will continue to be reevaluated over the next 12 hours. Cooler temperatures are forecast to begin on Sunday as a modest autumn-like cold front approaches from the north. Although the frontal boundary is expected to arrive during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, thick cloud cover ahead of the approaching front will keep temperatures cooler than previous days with afternoon temperatures still reaching the low-mid 90s (perhaps upper 80s along the OK/KS border). Additionally, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase along and ahead of the front on Sunday. Despite decent shear and low-level moisture in place as the front approaches, lapse rates and instability look to be marginal at this time, though sufficient enough to produce a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Best support for strong/severe storms will be along and north of the I-44 corridor during the afternoon and evening, ahead of the advancing cold front. The main hazards with any organized thunderstorm activity will be damaging wind gusts, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding. The cold front will push through the forecast area by late Sunday night or Monday morning and will result in unseasonably cool temperatures through the middle part of next week. Precipitation chances may linger behind the front through at least Monday morning, drying out west-to-east through the daytime. Another opportunity for showers and isolated thunderstorms will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday as the aforementioned trough axis/upper low swings through and east of the forecast area, though global models/ensembles still differ with timing and location of when this happens. There is even less forecast confidence on what transpires toward the latter half of the workweek next week as model synoptic solutions really diverge. However, consensus in guidance keeps temperatures near seasonal average through the end of the week. Mejia && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Light and variable winds are expected overnight with light south winds into Saturday. A few isolated showers/storms will be possible across northwest Arkansas, mainly Saturday afternoon, however precipitation chances appear too low to mention at this time. VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with only passing mid/high clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 76 98 75 90 / 10 10 20 40 FSM 75 97 75 93 / 0 10 0 10 MLC 75 98 74 94 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 73 99 70 88 / 10 10 20 60 FYV 73 94 72 89 / 20 20 10 30 BYV 72 94 71 90 / 20 40 20 30 MKO 75 96 75 92 / 0 10 10 20 MIO 74 96 72 89 / 20 20 30 50 F10 74 98 73 92 / 0 0 0 30 HHW 72 96 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...12