267
FXUS63 KUNR 231852
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1252 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Aside from a few sprinkles today, dry weather with temps slowly
 warming back up this week, warmest Thursday

-Elevated fire conditions at times this week, especially
 Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Fairly quiet pattern this week as the western NOAM ridge rebuilds
and supports warmer temps with mainly dry weather. Upper trough
currently advecting across the region today, supporting clouds
and a few sprinkles/showers. This system continues to fight a lot
of dry air, but will have a enough lift to support isolated
afternoon/evening showers/sprinkles across mainly the central SD
plains. Any precip amounts will be very light. Cool front will
shift through the region supporting a period of breezy NW winds
this afternoon, esp on the NW SD Plains. After today, mean ridging
can be expected through the rest of the week with temps trending
above normal. Temps will be back in the 80s (few 90s) most places
by the middle of the week, under dry conds. The pattern then
becomes muddled by early next week as a potent upper trough moves
into the Northern Plains, with a plethora of different solutions
as to how this system evolves. This will likely hinge on the
location of the expected closed low over the Midwest and its
effects on flow blocking. Some forecast models suggest it will be
cold enough for some light snow across the higher elevations of
northeast WY and western SD early next week. Much to work out
until then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 958 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Cold front passage will bring breezy northwest winds to the
region, winds will generally be at 15 to 20 kt, gusting to 25 to
30 kt. The strongest winds will be in northwestern SD and along
the eastern foothills. Winds expected to diminish through this
evening. A few showers may also develop along the front, but VFR
conditions will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 1249 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Temperatures will warm back up through the week as an upper ridge
builds back, resulting in continued elevated fire weather
conditions at times. Near critical conditions are expected
Wednesday and Thursday as RH falls below 20 percent with gusty
winds. After today, no precipitation chances are expected through
the week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Wong
FIRE WEATHER...JC