433
FXUS63 KUNR 242312
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
512 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through mid-week.

- Daily isolated storms possible through mid-week, with limited
  moisture and a chance for severe.

- More active weather towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Current surface analysis shows the low over eastern SD, with a
weak cold front stretching into southwestern SD. Water Vapor and
upper air models show near zonal flow over the forecast area
today. Temperatures currently sit in the upper 80s to upper 90s
across the region this afternoon. Frontal boundary is expected to
stall around the NE/SD border later this afternoon. With the
better forcing over that area, could see some storm development
late afternoon early evening timeframe. Plenty of CAPE and modest
shear, however a strong cap is expected to limit storm
development. Any storms that are able to develop, should have
supercell potential with severe hail/wind threats. Main timing for
severe potential looks to be around 6 to 10 pm MDT. Some modest
850mb theta-e lingering on could allow for showers/storms to
continue into the overnight hours, however severe threat is not
expected with any nocturnal storms.

Similar pattern continues for Tuesday, though with the lack of
forcing mechanism that exists over southern SD today. Cannot rule
out some daytime heating or Black Hills upslope convection, with
an isolated severe storm or two possible. A mid-level wave passing
through on Wednesday will continue our chances for daily storms,
but lack of moisture continues until later towards the weekend.
Mild upper ridge slides over the Rockies and into the
northern/central plains Wednesday into Thursday, followed by an
upper trough moving across southern Canada later Thursday into the
weekend, bringing increasing chances for storms with more
available moisture. Cooler temperatures move in as well, though
still at or just below normal for this time of year. Models show
upper ridge building back in early next week, with a return to
above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 511 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms (with gusty erratic winds,
small hail) are possible through 05z, mainly over southwestern
SD. Isolated thunderstorms are possible the rest of the night.
Except for any brief MVFR conditions in storms, VFR conditions
will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...Helgeson