Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
716 FXUS63 KUNR 221125 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 525 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm with limited thunderstorm activity for the fist half of the coming week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday) Issued at 133 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Current surface map places weak high across the Dakotas with trough moving through eastern Montana. Water vapor shows mid level trough from eastern Montana into the Nebraska Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are located across south central South Dakota into northwestern South Dakota/southeastern Montana. Shower/thunderstorm activity will continue to move eastward this morning with most of the activity east of the forecast area this morning. The rest of the day will feature weak subsidence with building mid/upper level heights. Soundings maintain sufficient buoyancy for thunderstorms this afternoon. However cap and lack of forcing should limit thunderstorm development to the Black Hills. Shear marginally strong enough this afternoon that if storms do develop, there will be some threat of hail. Flat upper ridge sets up across the area Sunday with low level thermal ridge surging northward and will be the first of several days with highs around or above 90F. Ridge gets knocked down Monday with strong shortwave tracking across southern Canada. Monday should be the warmest day with highs in the mid/upper 90s. Weak impulse and steep mid level lapse rates may bring a few thunderstorms Monday night. Upper trough moves into Pacific Northwest mid-week then tracks through the Northern Plains Thursday/Friday bringing an uptick in thunderstorm activity for the last half of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued At 517 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Widespread MVFR CIGS in scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with areas of IFR CONDS due to low stratus and fog, currently located from northwestern to south central South Dakota, will improve to VFR by 17Z this morning, as the CIGS improve and the precipitation moves off to the east. VFR conditions will then prevail through the rest of the forecast period. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, over and near the Black Hills and northwestern South Dakota. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...10