784
FXUS63 KUNR 251922
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
122 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday

-Warmer and drier next week with thunderstorms returning for the
 second half of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Active NW flow will continue to support unsettled conds this
weekend as a series of impulses cross the region. The first
impulse is approaching the region this afternoon, with isold to
sct shra expected across NW SD (where diurnal heating has a head
start) and across scentral SD where the main area of pos theta-e
adv is expected. An isolated shower or two will also be possible
over the Black Hills. Otherwise, there will be a small break in
between waves later tonight, before the next stronger system
enters the FA. This system will support increasing chances for
showers and isolated thunderstorm through the day, as heating
further destabilizes things by afternoon. Given wave timing, the
best chance for showers will be over the SD plains. Meager ml CAPE
(less than 500 J/kg) will limit thunderstorm coverage and
strength, with severe weather not expected. Cool temps expected
with rain and cloud cover Sunday, as highs top out only in the 60s
most places, cooler in the Black Hills. Ridging will then prevail
for the first part of next week, with warmer conds and dry
weather. However, the next upper trough will push into the Rockies
by mid next week as long trajectory southerly flow allows LL
moisture return along the plains adjacent to the Rockies,
supporting unsettled conds through the end of the week. Temps will
be at or above seasonal norms most of next week, cooling down
toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1117 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the period. Mainly VFR conditions will occur, although
LCL MVFR conditions are possible with the stronger
showers/storms.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...10