734
FXUS63 KUNR 241036
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
436 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry weather with much warmer than average temperatures
-Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, especially
 Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

An upper ridge over the region will bring a relatively quiet
weather pattern through the rest of this week, with dry weather
and much warmer than average temperatures (mainly 80s and 90s)
through the rest of the week.

Breezy to windy southerly winds will develop on Wednesday, due to
a tight surface pressure gradient between a surface high to the
southeast of the forecast area and trough to the northwest. With
unseasonably warm temperatures and low relative humidity, elevated
fire weather conditions are expected, with near critical
conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday.

The upper ridge will be shunted southward toward the end of the
week as a series of troughs cross the Canadian prairie provinces
in fast zonal flow to the north.

Models continue to show a wide variety of solutions (typical for
autumn) beginning early next week. The result will likely hinge
on the location of the expected closed low over the Midwest and
its effects on flow blocking. Some forecast models suggest it will
be cold enough for some light snow across the higher elevations
of northeastern WY and western SD early next week. Still much to
work out until then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 435 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 226 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Temperatures will be much warmer than average through the rest of
the week, resulting in continued elevated fire weather conditions.
Near critical conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday due
to low relative humidity and breezy to windy conditions. No
precipitation chances are expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...10
AVIATION...Pojorlie
FIRE WEATHER...10