-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
269
FXUS61 KALY 310317
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1117 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly temperatures expected tonight as high pressure builds in
from the Great Lakes tonight leading to clearing skies and light.
The surface anticyclone will bring fair and dry weather tomorrow
through the weekend. Temperatures will moderate above normal on
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 11pm, the SCT to BKN stratus clouds over the northern
and eastern Catskills are dissipating with a few sprinkles also
diminishing. Skies trend mainly clear by Midnight with a periods
of favorable radiational cooling through about 09 UTC as winds
turn light as well before high clouds spill southward from
Canada. Dew points remain in the low to mid 40s with a few spots
of upper 30s. This matches up well with our projected lows so
no major changed needed on this update. Otherwise, forecast on
track.

Previous discussion...High pressure in Michigan builds south
and eastward towards Ohio and western PA tonight. Northerly
winds on the east side of the high will continue overnight for
much of the Northeast maintaining a dry and chilly Canadian air
mass. In fact, as stratus clouds clear shortly before Midnight
and winds turn light (under 5kts), radiational cooling will
ensue allowing temperatures to become quite chilly. No major
changes to the forecasted low temperatures with just some minor
adjustments in the southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, and
southern Greens to show more of the region reaching mid to upper
30s as dew points this evening dropped into the mid to upper
30s. While some of our neighboring WFOs issued a frost advisory,
we held off and agree with the reasoning left from our day
shift. Civil Twilight tomorrow morning will be around 4:45am so
the duration for temperatures in the mid to upper 30s is not
long enough to support widespread frost. We are also on the west
side of the high rather than directly beneath it where the
coolest temperatures are found. Continue to message just patchy
frost mainly for the higher terrain areas.

Previous discussion...The mid and upper level trough axis will
move east of the region late this afternoon into early tonight.
High pressure will be ridging in from the Great Lakes Region.
The diurnal cumulus associated with the cold pool with the upper
trough will diminish early this evening.

The north/northwest winds will gradually decrease shortly before
or just after midnight. Some radiational cooling will occur and
we went below the NBM guidance over the higher terrain and in
some of the sheltered valleys. Temps will be in the upper 30s
with some spotty mid 30s over the eastern Catskills, Berkshires,
southern Greens corridor and the south/southwest Adirondack
Park. We did add patchy frost, but deposition will be tricky
with a dry environment, winds early on and the shorter
nocturnal time frame. Sunrise is about 520 am EDT at ALB. No
frost advisory headlines, but a cool or chilly night. Lows will
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s outside the higher terrain. We
did add some patchy fog to the CT River Valley near eastern
Windham County VT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow should be a beautiful day with the sfc anticyclone
building in from the Great Lakes Region/Ohio Valley. The mid and
upper level ridge will be upstream over the Great Lakes Region
and Midwest. It will be partly to mostly sunny with a northwest
breeze generally 5-15 mph. Temps will be slightly below normal
to near normal for the last day of May. Max temps are near the
NBM values with low to mid 70s in the major valleys and 60s to
around 70F over the hills and mtns.

Fri night expect ideal radiational cooling once again with
elongated high pressure over southeast Quebec and NY/PA. Low and
mid level heights will increase toward daybreak. We went close
to a MAV/MET guidance blend with 40s to lower 50s over the
forecast area.

The weekend and the 1st of June begins with great late spring
weather with strong subsidence with the ridge aloft over NY and
New England. H500 heights will be above normal by 1 to 2
STDEVs. Max temps will rise slightly above normal with a light
northwest breeze and few-sct cirrus with mostly sunny skies.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s below 1000 feet in
elevation and upper 60s to mid 70s generally above it.

A short-wave trough approaches from the west Sat night and de-
amplifies with the ridge holding on over New England. Some
mid/high clouds may increase and it will be slightly warmer than
previous night but very comfortable with lows in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Sunday, a short wave trough approaching from the west is expected
to weaken as it encounters an upper level ridge axis over New
England. There may be enough forcing/moisture to produce isolated to
widely scattered showers, especially for areas west of the Hudson
Valley. It does not look like a washout thought, with dry conditions
likely occurring most of the day. Highs temperatures look to be near
normal, with clouds increasing. A few showers may linger into Sun
evening, but look to be isolated in coverage.

Upper level and surface ridging looks to take control again on
Monday, with dry conditions returning. Temperatures are expected to
warm to above normal levels. Ridging should hold through the middle
of next week, although with a modest increase in moisture and
instability some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
possible Tue and Wed. Highs may reach well into the 80s in lower
elevations both days.

The next chance of more widespread convection looks to be on
Thursday, as a potential surface front approaches ahead of an upper
level low moving into the Great Lakes. There is still quite a bit of
spread in the guidance though, so forecast confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through 00 UTC Saturday June 1. SCT to
BKN stratocu clouds this evening will clear by 03 UTC with
clear skies for a period before cirrus clouds overspread the
region closer to 10 - 14 UTC. Some additional stratocu with
ceilings around 7kft may develop during the afternoon as we
reach our respective convective temperature.

Winds from the north around 5-8kts though 02 UTC become light
and variable. Winds then become breezy with sustained winds
reaching 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15-20kts from the
west/northwest by 14-15 UTC tomorrow lasting through sunset.

Outlook...

Fri Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tomorrow, minimum RH values drop to 30-40% in the afternoon.
However, fire weather concerns remain low with maximum wind
gusts of around 15 mph expected tomorrow and all areas having
received substantial rainfall within the past 5 days.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Speciale/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale
FIRE WEATHER...Main/Picard