-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
183
FXUS61 KBTV 061330
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
930 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers to the
region today, with some locally heavy rainfall possible. More cloud
cover will keep temperatures from being less hot than recent days
with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s. Unsettled and cooler
weather remains anticipated Friday through the weekend, with showers
finally becoming less numerous after Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 909 AM EDT Thursday...Showers associated with a pre-
frontal trough are spreading from northern NY eastward into
western VT this morning. These showers will diminish as the
morning progresses, with the main focus for today still being
the cold front to the west. At this time, this front is working
through western NY bringing a wave of heavier showers. Latest
guidance has this line reaching Saint Lawrence County between 1
and 3 PM, moving into the Champlain Valley between 3 and 5 PM,
then weakening east of the Greens this evening. Question still
remains as to how much destabilization we`ll see ahead of the
line, with morning satellite imagery showing overcast skies over
our CWA but a few breaks developing upstream. Forecast remains
on track for some thunderstorms with some gusty winds as the
line moves through, with best chances for any severe storms over
Saint Lawrence into Franklin County NY. Chance for severe
decreases as the line progresses eastward into the evening.
Still looking at the potential for some heavy rainers as well,
with deep warm cloud depths and PW values above 1.5 inches.
Previous discussion follows...

Showers across the region this morning will dwindle over the
next several hours, before more widespread showers associated
with the cold front approaching from the west move into the
region. Model soundings support the potential for heavy
rainfall, with PWAT values near 1.7 inches, tall and skinny CAPE
profiles, and deep warm cloud depths. The Excessive Rainfall
Outlook from WPC continues to have the region in a marginal risk
today, although dry antecedent conditions mitigate the threat,
although slow storm motions and any training storms will be
something to watch for given the favorable environment for heavy
downpours. SPC also has portion of the forecast area in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather, with the primary threat being
gusty winds, although cloudy skies will limit the amount of
instability across the region with limited diurnal heating.
Temperatures today will be several degrees cooler than the last
few days, with daytime highs climbing into the 70s to low 80s.

The cold front will exiting the region sometime Friday morning.
Depending on how quickly the showers move out of the region, the
plentiful low level moisture will allow for fog or low stratus
development overnight tonight, with several models highlighting east
of the Green Mountains. Overnight lows will be quite mild tonight,
although a few cooler than the previous night, with temperatures
only dropping into the 50s to low 60s. Behind the cold front,
temperatures aloft will cool as an upper-level low centered over the
Great Lakes works into the region, with some scattered showers
possible in the afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will
generally be in the 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Thursday...Showers continue on Friday night into
Saturday as surface and upper level lows remain anchored north of
our area. Cyclonic flow will bring periods of showers through this
timeframe. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals overnight
with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. On Saturday maximum
temperatures will be a little cooler than seasonal normals due to
clouds and periods of rain showers, mainly lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Thursday...Periods of showers continue from Saturday
night right through Monday as aforementioned surface and upper level
low pressure systems take a long time to finally push eastward.
Temperatures will remain cool through this period. Temperatures will
then begin to warm headed into the middle of next week as surface
and upper level ridges build into our area and we`ll also see a
return to drier weather. No significant systems on the horizon at
the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Primarily VFR conditions at all terminals
this morning, outside of KSLK with MVFR visibilities to mist and
fog developing overnight. Some scattered showers have developed
across northern New York, and will continue to dwindle over the
next several hours before another round of more widespread
showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold approaches
around 18Z. While VFR will prevail for the next several hours,
localized MVFR/IFR will be possible within heavier showers. More
widespread MVFR ceilings will be possible after 00Z Friday.
There is the potential for some low MVFR/IFR conditions towards
the end of the TAF period, but confidence is currently low and
trends will need to be monitored over the next couple of forecasts.
Winds will generally be south/southeasterly, becoming light and
variable overnight.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible at
some climate sites.

Record daily precipitation is possible at Massena and
Plattsburgh today.


Record Precipitation:

June 6:
KPBG: 1.05/2008
KMSS: 1.09/1953

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Duell/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer
CLIMATE...Kutikoff/Kremer